The Jacksonville Jaguars certainly have high expectations for first overall pick Trevor Lawrence, even as he adjusts to the style and speed of the NFL game during his rookie season. Certainly, expectations should be somewhat tempered considering he’ll be quarterbacking a team that went 1-15 a year ago, but the team expects to see positive signs and at least some success in Year 1.
However, it seems that Pro Football Focus is in “wait and see” mode when it comes to Lawrence. In the quarterback rankings from former NFL passer Bruce Gradkowski, he ranks just 21st in the league.
Lawrence was a three-year starter at Clemson, leading them to a 34-2 record, three straight College Football Playoff appearances and one National Championship trophy. He has been the best player at every level of football he has played. The question is whether he will be able to continue that trend in the NFL.
Lawrence is the only quarterback in the PFF College era to earn an overall grade of 90.0 as a true freshman — and he repeated that the last two seasons. His skill set should fit perfectly in the Urban Meyer/ Darrell Bevell offense, which will be designed to help the young QB reach his NFL potential. Bevell used a lot of play-action pass in Detroit — these concepts are easy for a young quarterback to read out with pure progressions and reliable check downs.
It seems Gradkowski believes that Lawrence will develop into a top passer but is skeptical when it comes to how much success he will have as a rookie. The only other first-year quarterbacks expected to start Week 1 are Justin Fields for the Chicago Bears and Zach Wilson of the New York Jets, who Gradkowski ranked 25th and 30th, respectively.
Lawrence isn’t the lowest-ranked quarterback in the AFC South, as new Indianapolis Colts quarterback Carson Wentz comes in at 23rd. Houston’s Deshaun Watson, whose status in 2021 remains in question, ranks fifth, while Tennessee’s Ryan Tannehill ranks 12th.
Lawrence hasn’t officially locked up the starting job yet, and he was limited during organized team activities as he recovers from shoulder surgery. However, assuming he’s healthy, it’d be a pretty major upset if a different passer lines up under center against the Houston Texans in the first game.