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I’ve been covering Michigan football since 2015 — unofficially for one year with 247Sports before I was hired full-time in June 2016. But, as a Michigan alum who went to school in Ann Arbor in 1999-2000, 2004-08, I’ve never seen the fanbase more dejected than I’ve seen this offseason.
Michigan fans are roundly mocked by rivals and haters alike for the offseason sunny disposition generally displayed, but this year, as the overcast skies and rains have come down upon the southeastern area of the state, it’s seemed to me like the attitudes that even the most ardent maize and blue faithful have had match the weather in the mitten state. Now, to some degree, I can understand why: the Wolverines went 2-4 last season and appeared to be inept across the board; the defense and quarterback position continue to be question marks without proof of improvement, despite multiple changes; Jim Harbaugh, expected to be the savior of the program, has yet to beat Ohio State or win the conference — and while he’s been close, it still appears to be so far away.
But weirder things have happened when it comes to turning things around.
I know, I know: faith in Harbaugh is at an all-time low, but the man hasn’t forgotten how to coach — even if it looked like it last year. He brought in a series of new hires on the staff that would have most schools rejoicing, despite the unknowns when it comes to Mike Macdonald coordinating the defense and more. In my years of covering college football, there’s been one thing I’ve noticed every offseason which generally seems to go unrecognized every year: the sport is not static from year-to-year. Every year, someone comes up, seemingly from out of nowhere, to be successful — and it also happens vice versa.
Last year, it was Michigan on the other end of that spectrum, going 2-4 while a usually moribund Indiana squad was hanging with an Ohio State team that went to the national championship game. We praise the likes of Iowa State — and Matt Campbell has done an incredible job in Ames — and, perhaps rightfully, expect the Cyclones to be a favorite in the Big 12. Whatever happens the year before becomes the expectation and then some — we expect winning teams to win more and losing teams to lose more.
While that sometimes happens, it’s hard to keep the big programs down.
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I should say here: I do expect Michigan to go 8-4, and the Wolverines are closer to going 7-5 than 9-3 in my opinion. But, again — weirder things have happened. In Ann Arbor alone, we’ve seen a 7-5 2005 team rattle off 11 wins before losing in Columbus; we’ve seen a 7-6 team in 2010 win 11 games in 2011; we’ve seen a 5-7 team double its win total in 2015. Yes, the latter two involved wholesale coaching changes, but in a way, that’s what’s happened with the Michigan coaching staff. We’ve also seen a 2015 MSU College Football Playoff squad yield a 3-9 result the next year before winning 10 games the following. The only constant in college football is change, save for the longevity of programs such as Ohio State, Alabama, Clemson and Oklahoma.
The overall arc for Michigan suggests that it’s more of a 8-4 to 10-2 program, and it will likely revert to those metrics sooner than later. I know people in Ann Arbor want more, but even in the now-celebrated 1990s — which did feature an undefeated season and national championship — it was called ‘Mediocre Michigan’ for a reason, as the Wolverines more often than not failed to win more than eight or nine games — the team averaged 9.3 wins that decade. Those results were somewhat mitigated in the eyes of the fanbase due to the improbable ownership of Ohio State in that era, but the overall record was what it was.
The beauty of college football is that anything can happen any given year — for better or worse. Yes, Michigan has underwhelmed and there’s no telling what will happen in 2021. But, let’s say the Wolverines manage a win over Washington in primetime in Week 2, win out in nonconference and enter the Week 5 game at Wisconsin with a little momentum. Perhaps Michigan gets its first win in Madison since 2001, perhaps not.
Regardless, part of the fun is seeing what happens. Most people didn’t expect a 10-3 season in 2018, nor did they in 2015. So, instead of lamenting what could very realistically be a not-so-fun season, why not get excited to be able to take the ride as it comes? After all, as we learned in 2020, a full, regular season is far from promised, so get hyped until the product on the field gives you reason to feel otherwise.
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