The Detroit Tigers (40-47) and Minnesota Twins (35-50) open a four-game series Thursday at 8:10 p.m. ET at Target Field in Minneapolis. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Tigers vs. Twins odds with MLB picks and predictions.
LHP Tarik Skubal is the projected starting pitcher for the Tigers. In 17 games (15 starts), Skubal is 5-7 with a 4.35 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 10.9 K/9, and 4.0 BB/9 in 82 2/3 IP.
Skubal is a fly-ball pitcher who has been hurt by the home run, but he owns a skill set built for striking out batters, even on pitches in the zone. He is, however, coming off a shaky outing — 5 ER allowed on 8 hits in 5 IP vs. the Chicago White Sox July 3.
LHP J.A. Happ is the projected starting pitcher for the Twins. He is 4-4 with a 6.09 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 7.0 K/9, and 2.9 BB/9 in 75 1/3 IP over 15 starts.
Happ has allowed 3-or-more earned runs in 5-of-his-last-6 starts. He owns a Boeing ERA (7.45) over that stretch. Current Tigers bats own a .759 OPS against him.
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Tigers at Twins odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:42 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Tigers +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Twins -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Tigers +1.5 (-165) | Twins -1.5 (+140)
- Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Prediction
Twins 5, Tigers 4
Money line (ML)
Detroit is 4-0-1 over its last five series. Over that span, the Tigers are 4-2 away from home; they are 8-5 on the road since June 14.
Minnesota is coming off a series loss to the White Sox, and the Twins are just 2-7 over their last nine games.
Prior to its 2-7 stretch, Minnesota had gone 7-2 from June 16-27, and the Twins do have the offense (and its especially tough on left-handers) to make for some value in a game like this.
Happ adds uncertainty, but he can’t get banged around with these marginal rates (last six starts: .368 batting average on balls in play, 22.4% fly balls as home runs) forever.
BACK THE TWINS (-135).
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS on the run-line proposition. The bullpens on both sides make for a toxic mix of uncertainty.
Over/Under (O/U)
The starters being more ERA-dinged than what’s deserved and slight defensive edge in the weather forecast make for a sliver of value with the UNDER 9.5 (-110).
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