The Chargers are hopeful that they can turn things around under new head coach Brandon Staley after finishing under .500 and missing out on the playoffs the past two years.
After breaking down each game, I believe that Los Angeles is capable of going 11-6 this upcoming season. But what do other media outlets believe they’re going to do?
Pro Football Focus is the latest to make their predictions, and they listed the best and worst case scenarios for each team by using their analytics system, which projects the high range (90th percentile) and low range (10th percentile).
For L.A., their best case scenario is finishing with a 11-6 record.
How they get there: First-year head coach Brandon Staley works his magic on a second Los Angeles defense. The return of Derwin James from injury gives the Chargers a difference-maker to move across the defensive formation. James earned 80.0-plus PFF grades as a run defender, pass-rusher and coverage man as a rookie in 2018.
A much-improved offensive line also means that Herbert isn’t forced to improvise as much on the other side of the ball. The new anchor of that unit, Corey Linsley, was PFF’s highest-graded center in 2020.
If everything doesn’t go to plan, PFF believes that the Chargers might finish worse than they did last year, listing their worst case scenario with a 5-12 record.
How they get there: Chargers fans don’t want to hear it, but there is potential for Justin Herbert not to be quite as impressive as he was in his rookie year. Herbert’s 75.4 passing grade under pressure led all quarterbacks in 2020, and he actually averaged a half-yard more per pass attempt under pressure (7.6) than he did from a clean pocket (7.1). That’s a pretty strong indicator of potential regression. Herbert taking a step back, in conjunction with depth concerns surfacing defensively, could lead to a disappointing season for Los Angeles.
PFF states that Los Angeles could experience the worst-case scenario because quarterback Justin Herbert might not be as good as he was in his rookie season.
Sure, there is the possibility of a slight regression knowing that teams will have more film on Herbert. But with the revamped offensive line and the talented skill players around him coupled with his natural talent and high football IQ, he is likelier to mitigate that from occurring.
While first-year head coach’s success rates are toss-ups, the Bolts are too talented on both sides of the ball to finish 5-12. The only way I see them finishing with that poorly is if they get hit with the injury bug, like they’ve experienced in prior seasons.
It will be difficult to fend off the Chiefs for the division title, but if everything goes in their favor, the Bolts are more than capable of dethroning Kansas City en route to possibly making a deep postseason run.