The Los Angeles Dodgers (48-31) host the San Francisco Giants (50-28) Tuesday at Dodger Stadium for the second game of their two-game miniseries. First pitch is set for 10:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Giants vs. Dodgers odds with MLB picks and predictions.
The Dodgers beat the Giants 3-2 Monday by outslugging them. L.A. hit three home runs to San Francisco’s two homers while Trevor Bauer outdueled Anthony DeSclafani by giving up one fewer long ball.
Season series: Dodgers lead 5-3.
RHP Kevin Gausman makes his 16th start for the Giants. Gausman is 8-1 with a 1.49 ERA (96 2/3 IP, 16 ER), 0.77 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 10.4 K/9 this year.
- Last outing: No decision with 7 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB and 9 K Wednesday in San Francisco’s 9-3 win at the Los Angeles Angels.
- Gausman beat the Dodgers in L.A. May 30 by pitching 6 scoreless frames, allowing only 2 hits and striking out 7 batters with 0 walks in San Francisco’s 5-4 victory.
- vs. Dodgers on the current roster: 150 at-bats with a .280/.355/.453 slash line, 35/18 K/BB, 6 HR and 20 RBIs.
RHP Walker Buehler is on the mound for the Dodgers. Buehler is 7-1 with a 2.51 ERA (96 2/3 IP, 27 ER), 0.92 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9 across 15 starts.
- Last outing: Loss, 4-0, with 6 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 2 BB and 6 K Thursday against the Chicago Cubs.
- Buehler is 1-0 this season vs. the Giants with 13 IP, 2 ER, 9 H, 4 BB and 8 K over two starts.
- vs. Giants on the current roster: 110 at-bats with a .200/.280/.273 slash line, 32/12 K/BB, 1 HR and 8 RBIs.
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Giants at Dodgers odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:52 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Giants +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Dodgers -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Giants +1.5 (-155) | Dodgers -1.5 (+125)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Prediction
Dodgers 5, Giants 1
Money line (ML)
GIMME the DODGERS (-160) for 1 unit because L.A. has the edge in the three most important phases of the game: starting pitching, relief pitching and hitting.
First of all, both starters are having an All-Star caliber season but Buehler’s advanced pitching numbers vs. active Giants hitters are far better than Gausman’s against current Dodgers batters.
For instance, Buehler has a 3.06 FIP against these San Francisco hitters with a .275 expected wOBA, .314 expected slugging percentage, 86.8 mph exit velocity and a 24.2% strikeout rate.
Gausman has a 4.87 FIP vs. the Dodgers with a .349 expected wOBA, .454 expected slugging percentage, 89.3 mph exit velocity and 20.8% strikeout rate.
Moreover, for my money, Buehler is the ace of this Dodgers rotation and I expect him to bounce back from a subpar, losing effort in his last outing.
Buehler has pitched in at least six innings in every start and has only given up more than three earned runs in two of those starts.
Also, L.A.’s lineup is slightly more productive vs. right-handed pitching (the Dodgers have a 118 wRC+ and the Giants have a 112 wRC+).
Furthermore, the Dodgers bullpen is 12th in WAR with the fourth-lowest home runs allowed per nine innings while the Giants’ bullpen is 23rd in WAR and 16th in HR/9.
Lastly, the Dodgers are getting “sharp” line movement after opening as -150 favorites but they’ve been bet up to the current number.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS because San Francisco has an MLB-high 91.7% cover rate as a road underdog this season (22-2 ATS) with a plus-3.4 run line margin and four of the eight Giants-Dodgers meetings this year have been decided by a run.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the UNDER 7.5 (-110) for a half unit since both teams have “top of the rotation” starters on the hill Tuesday and most of the situational trends point to the Under.
However, a vast majority of the market is taking the Under in Giants-Dodgers and I hate following a crowd of people in sports gambling.
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