The Tampa Bay Rays (47-32) open a two-game series against the Washington Nationals (38-38) Tuesday at 7:05 p.m. ET at Nationals Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Rays vs. Nationals odds with MLB picks and predictions.
LHP Rich Hill is the projected starting pitcher for the Rays. He is 6-2 with a 3.52 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 9.2 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9 in 76 2/3 IP over 15 starts.
Hill has recorded a 3.55 ERA in seven road starts this season, but it has come with a weak 6.3 K/9, compared to 11.3 at home. He hasn’t been missing as many bats lately, as his 7.1% swinging strike rate in June is a big drop from his 15.5% rate in May.
RHP Joe Ross is the projected starting pitcher for the Nationals. He is 4-7 with a 4.12 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 8.8 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 through 74 1/3 IP over 14 starts.
Ross had a 5.40 ERA at the end of May but has turned things around, allowing 0 ER in three of his last four starts. The sample is small and skewed by a 10 ER outing in mid-April, but Ross has a 5.74 ERA and 2.36 HR/9 in five home starts this season.
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Rays at Nationals odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:30 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Rays -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Nationals -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Rays -1.5 (+145) | Nationals +1.5 (-175)
- Over/Under: 9 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Prediction
Nationals 6, Rays 4
Money line (ML)
Hill went on a stretch where he was among the league’s most dominant pitchers, but he has cooled off lately. Since recording 25 swinging strikes in his May 25 start, his velocity has dipped and he has tallied a total of just 26 swings and misses in his last five starts.
The Nationals have been red-hot, winning 12 of their last 15 games. We’ll give them a slight edge in this matchup, so a small play on NATIONALS (-110) is the recommendation.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Neither side of this line looks like a great value, so it may be best to PASS on the run line. Of the alternate lines, NATIONALS -1.5 (+170) has some appeal, but Ross can’t be counted on to completely shut down the Tampa offense.
Over/Under (O/U)
Hill doesn’t quite look like the same pitcher we saw a month ago when he was dominating. Ross has looked pretty good lately, but he has a 4.86 ERA since 2017, and he has had a couple of blowups (8 ER and 10 ER) this year, as well.
OVER 9 (-105) is the best bet for this game, as both teams should put some runs on the board.
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