The Chicago Cubs (42-36) kick off a three-game set with the NL Central rival Milwaukee Brewers (45-33) Monday at American Family Field. Game 1’s first pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cubs vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Brewers lead 6-3.
RHP Kyle Hendricks makes his 16th start for the Cubs. Hendricks is 10-4 with a 3.84 ERA (86 2/3 IP, 37 ER), 1.26 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 this year.
- Last outing: Win, 7-1, with 6 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 0 BB and 5 K Tuesday vs. the Cleveland Indians.
- Hendricks is 1-0 in two starts against Milwaukee this season with a 1.50 ERA (12 IP, 2 ER), 1.00 WHIP and 6.0 K/BB rate.
- vs. Brewers on the current roster: 206 at-bats with a .223/.265/.301 slash line, 49/10 K/BB, 3 HR and 10 RBIs.
RHP Freddy Peralta takes the hill for the Brewers. Peralta is 7-2 with a 2.11 ERA (81 IP, 19 ER), 0.86 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 12.7 K/9 across 15 starts and one relief appearance.
- Last outing: Win, 5-0, with 6 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 4 BB and 10 K Tuesday at the Arizona Diamondbacks.
- Peralta is 2-0 in three starts vs. Chicago this season with a 1.80 ERA (15 IP, 3 ER), 1.00 WHIP and 3.6 K/BB rate.
- vs. Cubs on the current roster: 87 at-bats with a .195/.293/.299 slash line, 37/11 K/BB, 1 HR and 6 RBIs.
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Cubs at Brewers odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:22 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Cubs +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Brewers -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Cubs +1.5 (-165) | Brewers -1.5 (+140)
- Over/Under: 7 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Prediction
Brewers 4, Cubs 2
Money line (ML)
Both starters have good numbers against their opponents, but Peralta’s pitching peripherals vs. active Cubs hitters are far more impressive than Hendricks’ against Milwaukee.
Peralta has a 2.45 FIP against current Chicago batters, while Hendricks has a 2.77 FIP vs. active Brewers hitters.
However, Peralta has a .205 expected wOBA, .123 expected batting average, .183 expected slugging percentage and 34.5% strikeout rate.
Hendricks has a .297 expected wOBA, .248 expected batting average, .371 expected slugging percentage and 23.7% strikeout rate.
Finally, Chicago’s lineup has been atrocious recently, ranking dead-last in WAR, wRC+ and wOBA over the past two weeks.
Since Peralta has some of the nastiest stuff in the league—92nd percentile of whiff rate, 99th percentile of expected batting average and 95th percentile of expected wOBA—the play is to BET the BREWERS (-155) for a 1 unit.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS because Milwaukee’s lineup has been terrible at home this season (more on that below) and the Brewers are just 14-18 ATS as a home favorite while the Cubs are 15-12 ATS as a road underdog in 2021.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the UNDER 7 (-105) for a half unit because Peralta has been one of the best pitchers in the NL so far this season and Hendricks has righted the ship after struggling to start the year.
Hendricks has eight straight quality starts and hasn’t allowed an earned run in his last two outings (12 innings pitched). Also, the Under is 6-2-1 in the nine Cubs-Brewers meeting this season.
Furthermore, Chicago’s lineup is one of the least productive on the road. The Cubs rank 23rd in both wRC+ and wOBA on the road with the 22nd-ranked hard-hit rate.
Conversely, the Brewers are in the bottom 6 lineup of the majors at home in advanced hitting metrics such as wRC+, wOBA and BB/K rate.
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