The 5-seed Atlanta Hawks (1-1) host the 3-seed Milwaukee Bucks (1-1) Sunday for Game 3 of their Eastern Conference Finals playoff series. Tip-off at State Farm Arena is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Bucks vs. Hawks odds and lines, with NBA picks and predictions.
Milwaukee destroyed the Hawks Friday in Game 2, 125-91, as the Bucks outshot them 52.1% to 41.5% from the field and outrebounded them 47-34, while Atlanta committed 19 turnovers with just 13 assists.
Also, Milwaukee did a much better job defending Trae Young in Game 2, holding him to just 15 points on 37.5% shooting (1-for-8 from behind the arc) and 3 assists on 9 turnovers. Trae lit the Bucks up for 48 points and 11 assists in Game 1.
Bucks at Hawks: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:21 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Bucks -200 (bet $200 to win $100) | Hawks +165 (bet $100 to win $165)
- Against the spread/ATS: Bucks -4.5 (-110) | Hawks +4.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 223.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Bucks at Hawks: Key injuries
Hawks
- SG Bogdan Bogdanović (knee) questionable
Bucks
- PF Giannis Antetokounmpo (calf) probable
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Bucks at Hawks: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Bucks 115, Hawks 104
Money line (ML)
PASS because I’d rather be greedy and lay the points with Milwaukee than risk two times my money with the Bucks (-200) money line.
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Against the spread (ATS)
Bucks first-year PG Jrue Holiday played much better on both ends of the floor in Game 2 than in Game 1.
Not only was Holiday instrumental in holding Trae in check, but he added 22 points on 64.3% shooting (3-for-4 from three) and 7 assists.
If Holiday continues to give the Bucks this kind of two-way play then the Hawks have little chance of stealing the series.
Additionally, Giannis has upped his production vs. Atlanta in the playoffs, going from averaging 24.3 points and 4.7 assists per game in the three regular-season Bucks-Hawks meetings to scoring 29.5 points per game with 7.5 assists per game in this series.
Even though this series is technically tied, Milwaukee has been better in three of the “four factors” through two games and it took sheer brilliance out of Trae for Atlanta to steal Game 1.
“LEAN” to the BUCKS -4 (-120) for a half unit because Milwaukee is easy to defend if its 3-point shots aren’t falling since the Bucks have the lowest FT/FGA rate in the playoffs.
Over/Under (O/U)
BET the UNDER 223.5 (-110) for 1 unit as my best bet in Bucks-Hawks Game 3 because the presumed “sharp” money is on the Under while the public is betting the Over.
For instance, according to Pregame.com, nearly 55% of the money wagered is on the Under whereas more than 60% of the bets placed are on the Over.
Typically, it’s more profitable in sports betting to follow the money – especially when it’s flowing in the opposite direction as your “average Joe”.
More to the point, oddsmakers moved the total down from the 225-point opener to the current number in reaction to the “sharp” money.
Furthermore, Atlanta’s offense and Trae himself rely on getting to the charity stripe since the Hawks were first in FT/FGA rate during the regular season, but Milwaukee does a good job keeping opponents off the foul line. The Bucks had the best defensive FTA/FG rate in the regular season and in these playoffs.
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