The Milwaukee Brewers (42-33) return home after a seven-game road trip to start a three-game set with the Colorado Rockies (31-44) Friday at American Family Field. Game 1’s first pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Rockies vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Tied 2-2.
RHP Jon Gray is on the hill for the Rockies. Gray is 4-6 with a 4.29 ERA (63 IP, 30 ER), 1.29 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 across 12 starts.
- Last outing: Loss, 9-5, with 2 1/3 IP, 5 ER, 4 H, 2 BB and 0 K vs. the Oakland Athletics June 4.
- vs. Brewers on the current roster: 58 at-bats with a .224/.237/.362 slash line, 20/1 K/BB, 1 HR and 7 RBIs.
RHP Corbin Burnes makes his 13th start for the Brewers. Burnes is 3-4 with a 2.62 ERA (68 2/3 IP, 20 ER), 0.93 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 14.2 K/9 this year.
- Last outing: No-decision with 5 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 8 H, 2 BB and 6 K in Milwaukee’s 6-5 loss in 10 innings at the Rockies June 18.
- vs. Rockies on the current roster: 47 at-bats with a .277/.340/.426 slash line, 13/4 K/BB, 1 HR and 7 RBIs.
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Rockies at Brewers odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 6:17 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Rockies +200 (bet $100 to win $200) | Brewers -250 (bet $250 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Rockies +1.5 (-105) | Brewers -1.5 (-115)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)
Prediction
Brewers 3, Rockies 2
Money line (ML)
PASS with a slight “lean” to the Rockies (+200) because I like the value of Colorado’s run line and would like to sprinkle on the underdog’s money line.
But the Rockies are just 6-28 on the road this season and their batting numbers fall off a cliff when they leave Coors Field.
Colorado’s lineup has by far the lowest wRC+ and wOBA on the road and the fifth-lowest hard-hit rate in away games.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
BET the ROCKIES +1.5 (-105) for 1 unit as a “contrarian play” against a market that’s seeing nearly 90% of the bets placed on Brewers -1.5 (-105), according to Pregame.com.
However, there is presumed “sharp” money backing Colorado as there’s nearly a split in the money column of the betting splits in Rockies-Brewers.
Also, Gray’s FIP, opponent’s wOBA, launch angle and K% vs. Chicago’s lineup are all better than Burnes’ against the Rockies’ active hitters.
Plus the Rockies had the highest hard-hit rate against Burnes of any opponent this year and the second-highest SIERA and xFIP.
Furthermore, the Brewers’ lineup has the worst home wRC+, second-worst home wOBA and sixth-worst home BB/K rate.
Lastly, these teams split a four-game series at Colorado this past weekend and three of those four meetings were decided by a single run.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the UNDER 7.5 (-120) for a half unit only because the Under is way more popular than the Over in the Rockies-Brewers betting market and I hate following a crowd of people in sports gambling.
That being said, when you combine the Rockies’ road-hitting woes with the Brew Crew’s batting troubles at their home park and both clubs trotting out their top-end starters then the only play on the total is UNDER 7.5 (-120).
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