The Cleveland Indians (39-30) travel to the Windy City Monday to start a two-game interleague miniseries with the Chicago Cubs (40-32) at Wrigley Field. First pitch is scheduled for 8:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Indians vs. Cubs odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Indians lead 2-0.
RHP Aaron Civale is Cleveland’s projected starter. Civale is 10-2 with a 3.48 ERA (93 IP, 36 ER), 1.07 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 6.9 K/9 across 14 starts.
- Last outing: Win, 8-7, with 5 IP, 5 ER, 9 H, 2 BB and 2 K Wednesday vs. the Baltimore Orioles.
- Civale earned a no-decision in a start last season vs. the Cubs with a stat line of 6 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 3 BB and 3 K in Cleveland’s 3-2 loss.
- vs. Cubs on the current roster: 17 at-bats with a .294/.429/.353 slash line, 2/2 K/BB, 0 HR and 1 RBI.
RHP Adbert Alzolay makes his 12th start for the Cubs. Alzolay is 4-5 with a 4.06 ERA (57 2/3 IP, 26 ER), 1.04 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 this year.
- Last outing: Loss, 9-4, with 3 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 5 BB and 4 K at the San Diego Padres June 7. He was activated off the 10-day IL after missing his last scheduled start with a blister on his right middle finger.
- Alzolay lost to the Indians, 3-2, earlier this season (May 11) with 6 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 0 BB and 6 K.
- vs. Indians on the current roster: 20 at-bats with a .250/.286/.550 slash line, 6/0 K/BB, 2 HR and 3 RBIs.
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Indians at Cubs odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 4:15 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Indians +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Cubs -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Indians +1.5 (-175) | Cubs -1.5 (+145)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)
Prediction
Indians 5, Cubs 2
Money line (ML)
“LEAN” to the INDIANS (+130) for a half unit because Cleveland has been more successful vs. right-handed pitching this season and they have a decisive edge in the starting pitching matchup.
For instance, Cleveland and Chicago’s lineups are neck-and-neck in advanced hitting categories such as wOBA and BB/K but the Indians have a 24-16 record against righties while the Cubs are just 27-26.
Furthermore, if either team benefits more from the National League’s no DH rule it would be the Indians who have a less talented lineup and the better starter on the hill.
Also, each starter pitched six innings and neither allowed more than three earned runs in their previous starts against Monday’s opponent, but Civale’s pitching peripherals are much more impressive than Alzolay’s.
Civale has a 2.89 FIP with a .316 wOBA, .456 expected slugging percentage and 83.7 mph exit velocity in 18 plate appearances by current Cubs batters.
While Alzolay has a 9.65 FIP with a .417 wOBA, .697 expected slugging percentage and a 97.9 mph exit velocity in 14 plate appearances by current Indians hitters.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
“LEAN” to the INDIANS +0.5 (-130) FIRST 5 INNINGS for a half unit because a half-run worth of insurance for Cleveland’s First 5 Innings run line is fairly cheap considering the starting pitching matchup.
Over/Under (O/U)
Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 7.5 (+100) for a quarter unit – if at all – because I much prefer the Cleveland sides more than the total.
That being said, Cleveland’s lineup is mediocre at best, Chicago has only scored more than two runs once in the last eight games, and the presumed “sharp” side of the market is backing the Under while the public is betting the Over (according to Pregame.com).
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