The Cincinnati Reds (35-35) and Minnesota Twins (30-41) open a two-game series Monday, with first pitch from Target Field coming at 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Reds vs. Twins odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Tyler Mahle is the projected starting pitcher for the Reds. He is 7-2 with a 3.39 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 10.9 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 over 74 1/3 IP spanning 14 starts.
Mahle won his last five starts, lowering his ERA from 4.20 to 3.39 in that span. He had his best outing of the season Wednesday against the Milwaukee Brewers, in allowing just 1 run on 3 hits in 6 innings, with 12 strikeouts. He’s 1-0 with a 2.08 ERA in two career starts against Minnesota.
LHP J.A. Happ is the projected starting pitcher for the Twins. He is 3-3 with a 6.12 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 6.6 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 across 60 1/3 IP over 12 starts.
Happ has struggled lately, with at least 4 earned runs allowed in each of his last three starts, and in six of his last seven outings. His ERA has ballooned from 1.91 to 6.12 since May 12. In his career against the Reds, he is 3-3 with a 5.36 ERA in nine starts.
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Reds at Twins odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:25 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Reds -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Twins +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
- Against the spread/ATS: Reds -1.5 (+125) | Twins +1.5 (-150)
- Over/Under: 9 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Prediction
Reds 6, Twins 4
Money line (ML)
Although the Reds just lost four straight games to the San Diego Padres, it’s not a major cause for concern. They had won six games in a row prior to that series in San Diego and now have Mahle, who has won five straight starts, on the mound.
I like the REDS (-125) to win on the road against a struggling pitcher in Happ.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
This is the perfect opportunity for the Reds to get back on track, facing a lefty in Happ. The Twins are just 5-7 in his starts this season and dropped five of their last eight when he takes the mound.
You should feel good about taking the REDS -1.5 (+125) at plus money as they look to rebound from a poor stretch in San Diego.
Over/Under (O/U)
The Over cashed in four of the Reds’ last seven games and though they’ve scored more than 2 runs only twice in their last six games, they shouldn’t have much trouble tagging Happ for 3-plus runs Monday. Once they get to Minnesota’s bullpen, they should tack on a few more.
The Twins have the seventh-highest bullpen ERA in MLB. Bet the OVER 9 (-115).
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