The Seattle Mariners (37-36) look to sweep the Tampa Bay Rays (43-29) in their four-game series finale Sunday at T-Mobile Park. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Rays vs. Mariners odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Seattle won the first three games of this series by a combined score of 17-11. The Mariners won 6-5 Saturday when RF Mitch Haniger hit a walk-off RBI single in the bottom of the 10th.
Season series: Mariners lead 3-0.
LHP Shane McClanahan makes the 10th start of his rookie season for the Rays. He is 2-2 with a 4.42 ERA (38 2/3 IP, 19 ER), 1.40 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 10.7 K/9 this year.
- Last outing: Loss, 3-0, with 5 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 1 BB and 4 K Tuesday at the Chicago White Sox.
LHP Marco Gonzales is on the mound for the Mariners. Gonzales is 1-4 with a 5.44 ERA (41 1/3 IP, 25 ER), 1.38 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 through eight starts.
- Last outing: No-decision with 5 IP, 3 ER, 8 H, 2 BB and 5 K in Seattle’s 4-3 win over the Minnesota Twins Monday.
- vs. Rays on the current roster: 22 at-bats with a .273/.304/.409 slash line, 8/0 K/BB, 1 HR and 3 RBIs.
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Rays at Mariners odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:40 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Rays -165 (bet $165 to win $100) | Mariners +135 (bet $100 to win $135)
- Against the spread/ATS: Rays -1.5 (+100) | Mariners +1.5 (-120)
- Over/Under: 8 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Prediction
Mariners 4, Rays 2
Money line (ML)
Slight “LEAN” to the MARINERS (+135) for a quarter unit only because the better value is with Seattle’s run line price, but the gist of my handicap is that Tampa Bay shouldn’t be this big of a favorite.
The Rays are the defending AL Champions and are again one of the best teams in baseball but Seattle has performed much better than its Spring Training expectations thus far.
The Mariners are 22-15 at home, have won five of their last six home games and Gonzales has pitched well in Seattle’s ballpark since joining the Mariners in 2017.
Gonzales has an 18-9 career record with a 3.73 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 4.3 K/BB rate at Seattle’s ballpark (formerly named Safeco Field), all of which are better than his career averages.
Furthermore, Seattle’s lineup has been more productive at the plate recently. Over the past two weeks, Mariners hitters are top-10 in WAR and wRC+ and ahead of the Rays in both metrics.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
TAKE the MARINERS +1.5 (-120) for 1 unit because Seattle has the third-best run line record at home this season and is 18-7 ATS as a home underdog.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the UNDER 8 (-110) for a half unit because it’s a “contrarian play” against a betting market in which has 90% of the action on the Over, according to Pregame.com.
More importantly, both lineups are in the bottom-10 of advanced hitting categories such as wRC+, wOBA, OPS and hard-hit rate, and both bullpens are top-7 in WAR and FIP.
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