The 2-seed Brooklyn Nets (3-3) host the 3-seed Milwaukee Bucks (3-3) Saturday for Game 7 of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series at 8:30 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Bucks-Nets odds and lines, with NBA picks and predictions.
Milwaukee handled Brooklyn 104-89 in Game 6 by outrebounding the Nets 51-39, having nearly three times the FT/FGA rate and winning three of the four quarters, with the third quarter being a draw.
Bucks former All-Star Khris Middleton had the performance of his career, scoring a game-high 38 points on 68.8% shooting (11-for-16) with 10 rebounds, 5 assists, 5 steals and a plus-68 net rating.
Kevin Durant regressed just enough from his all-time performance in Game 5 by scoring 32 points on 50.0% shooting but had seven turnovers and an 87 offensive rating.
Bucks at Nets: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:35 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Bucks +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Nets -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Bucks +2 (-115) | Nets -2 (-105)
- Over/Under: 215.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Bucks at Nets: Key injuries
Bucks
- Nothing affecting gambling odds.
Nets
- PG Kyrie Irving (ankle) out
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Bucks at Nets: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Bucks 113, Nets 109
Money line (ML)
KD’s performance in Game 5 could certainly be duplicated in Game 7, and if that’s the case it’s curtains for Milwaukee’s season, but if Durant is only fractionally off then the BUCKS (+105) are going to steal this series.
And while James Harden isn’t officially listed on the injury report, everyone knows his health is compromised by a hamstring injury that kept him out the first four games of this series.
Harden played almost 40 minutes in Game 6 but only attempted nine shots, including six 3-pointers, and made it to the free-throw line just five times.
If Harden isn’t attacking the basket then there’s a lot of pressure on KD to create offense both for himself and his teammates. Durant has a 36.1% usage rate in this series, so the Bucks have a good idea of how Brooklyn will play.
With no Kyrie and a hobbled Harden, Brooklyn’s only path to victory is KD playing at an all-time level to get past a Bucks team that’s paid their dues.
Everyone is calling for Milwaukee head coach Mike Budenholzer’s job even though the Bucks still haven’t been eliminated and there’s intense scrutiny (rightfully so) on Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jrue Holiday and Middleton.
However, I favor Milwaukee’s continuity, health and size in this spot against a limited Brooklyn team with a first-year head coach that hasn’t proven anything yet.
Furthermore, oddsmakers accounted for all this in their original price of Milwaukee laying 1.5 points on the opener but the market disagrees with the House’s assessment.
Brooklyn has been steamed through zero and it’s up to the Nets -2 (-105) because two-thirds of the money and three-fourths of the bets are on Brooklyn, according to Pregame.com.
I’ll back the oddsmakers’ original price for Game 7 and BET the BUCKS (+105) for 1.25 units to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals.
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Against the spread (ATS)
PASS unless the Bucks +2 (-115), unless this gets up to a 2.5-point underdog in which case take the points with Milwaukee.
Since a vast majority of the action is on Brooklyn, I’m going to wait to as close to tip-off as possible in hopes of getting the Bucks at +3.
Over/Under (O/U)
Slight “LEAN” to the OVER 215.5 (-115) for a one-third unit – if at all – because the Bucks-Nets total in Game 1 was 239.5 and a 24-point swing in pricing in a series is stunning.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Brooklyn tries to get its role players involved early, namely Joe Harris who’s been ice-cold this series, or if Milwaukee has success attacking a banged-up Harden.
That being said, I much prefer Milwaukee outright or +3 if it gets that high than the Over 215.5 (-115) in Bucks-Nets.
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