The Chicago White Sox (43-27) meet the Houston Astros (41-28) Saturday for the third game of their four-game series at Minute Maid Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the White Sox vs. Astros odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Houston beat Chicago 2-1 Friday thanks to a DH Yordan Álvarez walk-off double that scored 1B Yuli Gurriel to conclude what was an awesome pitching duel.
Season series: Astros lead 2-0.
RHP Lance Lynn is on the hill for the White Sox. Lynn is 7-2 with a 1.51 ERA (71 2/3 IP, 12 ER), 0.94 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 across 12 starts.
- Last outing: Loss, 5-2, with 6 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 3 BB and 8 K Monday vs. the Tampa Bay Rays.
- vs. Astros on the current roster: 157 at-bats with a .312/.365/.554 slash line, 43/12 K/BB, 10 HR and 24 RBIs.
LHP Framber Valdez makes his fifth start for the Astros. Valdez is 3-0 with a 1.42 ERA (25 1/3 IP, 4 ER), 0.95 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 8.5 K/9 this year.
- Last outing: Win, 14-3, with 7 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 3 BB and 2 K Sunday at the Minnesota Twins.
- No career starts vs. the White Sox.
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White Sox at Astros odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:58 a.m. ET.
- Money line: White Sox +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Astros -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: White Sox +1.5 (-190) | Astros -1.5 (+155)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Prediction
Astros 3, White Sox 2
Money line (ML)
The ASTROS (-130) FIRST 5 INNINGS for a three-fourths unit is the play – even though the White Sox have an 18-4 record when facing a lefty starter – because Valdez has been stellar vs. righties this year.
Throughout his career, Valdez’s handedness splits are fairly similar against both righties and lefties but this season he’s actually been more effective vs. right-handed-hitting than lefties.
Granted it’s a small sample size since he’s only made four starts this season; however, righties’ slash line vs. Valdez is .179/.256/.256 through 78 at-bats and the White Sox have six right-handed hitters and three switch-hitters in their projected lineup.
Also, the White Sox have been mediocre on the road this season with just a 16-15 record away from Chicago and have lost eight of their last nine road games against teams with a winning record.
The reason for BETTING the ASTROS (-130) FIRST 5 INNINGS instead of their full game money line is because Houston’s bullpen has a 14-15 record with 12 blown saves (eighth in the majors) and is 25th in WAR.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Since Houston’s bullpen is unreliable and Lynn is leading the American League in ERA (among qualified starters), I don’t see the value in either Astros -1.5 (+155) for the full game or Astros -0.5 (+110) First 5 Innings. PASS.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the UNDER 7.5 (-105) for a half unit only, since I prefer the Houston outright more than the total in White Sox-Astros.
That being said, both starters have been dominant so far this season and the presumed “sharp” money is on the Under whereas there are more bets placed on the Over (according to Pregame.com).
Since I prefer to play sides more than totals, I typically will lean on the betting splits when handicapping the total unless otherwise noted.
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