The New York Mets (33-25) host the Chicago Cubs (38-28) for the second game of their four-game set Tuesday at Citi Field with a 7:10 p.m. ET first pitch. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cubs vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.
New York won the first game of the series 5-2 Monday, snapping Chicago’s five-game winning streak and picking up their sixth win in the past eight games.
Season series: Cubs lead 3-1.
RHP Alec Mills gets the start for the Cubs. Mills is 2-0 with a 6.08 ERA (23 2/3 IP, 16 ER), 1.52 WHIP, 3.8 BB/9 and 5.7 K/9 across 1 start and 12 bullpen appearances.
- Last outing: 1 IP out of the bullpen of Chicago’s 7-1 victory last Tuesday at the San Diego Padres with 1 ER, 1 H, 2 BB and 2 K.
- One of Mills’ two wins came earlier this season against the Mets where he tossed 3 IP out of the bullpen with 0 ER, 1 H, 0 BB and 2 K in Chicago’s 16-4 win.
- vs. Mets on the current roster: 28 at-bats with a .250/.323/.321 slash line, 7/2 K/BB, 0 HR and 1 RBI.
RHP Taijuan Walker makes his 12th start for the Mets. Walker is 5-2 with a 2.07 ERA (61 IP, 14 ER), 1.03 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 this year.
- Last outing: Win, 14-1, with 7 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 9 K at the Baltimore Orioles Wednesday.
- Walker took a loss earlier this season at the Cubs with a stat line of 3 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 2 H, 6 BB and 7 K as New York fell 3-1.
- vs. Cubs on the current roster: 58 at-bats with a .276/.382/.362 slash line, 13/8 K/BB, 1 HR and 7 RBIs.
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Cubs at Mets odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:26 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Cubs +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Mets -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Cubs +1.5 (-165) | Mets -1.5 (+140)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Prediction
Cubs 4, Mets 2
Money line (ML)
Slight “LEAN” to the CUBS (+130) for a tiny wager because Mills was lights out in his earlier appearances vs. the Mets this season while Walker has mediocre advanced numbers against Chicago and there’s “reverse line movement” in the betting market.
For instance, Mills’ expected opponent’s wOBA, expected slugging percentage, exit velocity, and strikeout rate in 20 plate appearances by current Mets are much better than Walker’s in 64 plate appearances by current Cubs.
Also, Mills has a 0.76 FIP in those at-bats whereas Walker has a 4.27 FIP vs. the Cubs on the current roster.
Furthermore, a majority of the money wagered has been on the Mets (according to Pregame.com) but oddsmakers are making New York’s money line cheaper.
It’s typically a red flag in sports betting when the House makes the more popular side cheaper.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
“LEAN” to the CUBS +0.5 (-125) FIRST 5 INNINGS for a half unit because of the previous analysis combined with a half-run worth of insurance at a reasonable price.
Over/Under (O/U)
BET the UNDER 8.5 (-115) for 1 unit as my best bet in Cubs-Mets. Walker has been far more effective in New York than on the road and both bullpens are top-4 units in WAR.
Moreover, Citi Field has the second-fewest runs rate of any ballpark in the MLB and the weather forecast is predicting 10-plus mph winds blowing in from centerfield.
Lastly, the Mets have played to the second-highest rate of Unders in the majors at home (6-16-1 O/U in Citi Field) and the Cubs are just 13-17-2 O/U this season in road games.
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