Computers are great.
Until they’re not.
Like when you lose a term project during finals week and have to restart the 30-page paper.
Then sometimes they help create a formula that claims one of college football’s best team’s over the last four seasons is going to fall off a cliff in 2021 and go just 7-5 in the regular season.
Just a gentle reminder, Notre Dame has lost five regular season games in the last four seasons combined, going 41-5 in regular season contests during that time.
They’ve also lost just once at Notre Dame Stadium in that time and that was to eventual national runner-up, Georgia back in early-September of 2017.
Bill Connelly of ESPN operates the SP+ that has become such a big deal in recent years and today it released it’s prognosis of the 2021 Notre Dame Fighting Irish:
Even if you're higher on Notre Dame than SP+*, that midseason stretch is INCREDIBLE. They've got a month to figure things out.
* Using updated ret prod numbers, ND is more like 21st-23rd than 25th now. pic.twitter.com/nTKhz07L8j
— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) June 1, 2021
What’s important to know is that Connelly’s computer, or formula, or whatever the heck it is doesn’t live in a world of toss-ups, even if they list them. All four of those games count as losses instead of being of the toss-up variety they’re listed as.
At some point common sense has to kick in and we have to realize that aside from Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, Georgia, and maybe Oklahoma, nobody nationally has done as good of job at developing their talent as Notre Dame has in recent seasons.
You also need to realize that the recruiting rankings do matter to some degree and although Notre Dame might not have finished as high as you’d probably like the last four years, their roster is significantly deeper than the majority of it’s opponents even after losing a ton to the NFL draft.
I get that it’s a tough stretch as having Wisconsin, Cincinnati, Virginia Tech, USC, and North Carolina all in a row is no slouch, but there is a bye week before the USC game and I’m not all that enthralled with Virginia Tech as the Hokies are 4-10 against ranked opponents under Justin Fuente.
I’m not saying that Notre Dame will be participating in their third College Football Playoff in four seasons this winter, but if they lose five games this coming regular season I’ll live in my heat-less garage for a week in December.
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