The New York Mets (25-20) and Arizona Diamondbacks (19-35) play the first game of a three-game series at Chase Field Monday with a 9:40 p.m. ET first pitch. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Mets vs. Diamondbacks odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Jacob deGrom is the projected starting pitcher for the Mets. He is 3-2 with a 0.80 ERA, 0.60 WHIP, 14.8 K/9 and 1.4 BB/9 over 45 IP through 7 starts.
DeGrom allowed just one run and three hits with no walks and nine strikeouts last time out against the Colorado Rockies in a no-decision in his return from the 10-day injured list. He has faced Arizona this season, allowing one run, one hit and three walks with six strikeouts over five innings in a win May 9.
RHP Merrill Kelly is the projected starting pitcher for the Diamondbacks. He is 2-5 with a 4.84 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 8.1 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 over 57 2/3 IP through 10 starts.
Kelly has turned in three straight quality starts, although he has no wins to show for his efforts. Prior to that stretch, he allowed three runs (two earned) and three hits over 5 2/3 innings in a loss against the Mets on the road May 8. His ERA has improved in each of his past seven outings, dropping from 8.44 to 4.84 since April 15.
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Mets at Diamondbacks odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 6:36 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Mets -190 (bet $190 to win $100) | Diamondbacks +155 (bet $100 to win $155)
- Against the spread/ATS: Mets -1.5 (-110) | Diamondbacks +1.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (Over +100 | Under -120)
Prediction
Mets 4, Diamondbacks 1
Money line (ML)
The METS (-190) are slightly over my personal money line limit of -180, but sometimes you have to make exceptions. DeGrom and the Mets are worth backing here against Kelly, who has just had awful luck lately despite pitching pretty well on his own.
The Diamondbacks snapped a 13-game losing streak Sunday with a 9-2 win vs. the St. Louis Cardinals, but don’t expect a two-game win streak to start. They haven’t won back-to-back games since May 10-11.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
NEW YORK -1.5 (-110) is the play here behind deGrom. In eight of the Diamondbacks’ 13 losses during their ugly skid, they lost by two or more runs. They’ll face a major challenge cobbling any runs together against an ace like deGrom, who has an ERA under 1.00.
Over/Under (O/U)
The UNDER 7.5 (-120) is easily the best play on the board. Kelly has been pitching well, posting three straight quality starts, and deGrom has been nearly unhittable. Runs will be at a premium in the desert.
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