The St. Louis Cardinals (27-22) begin a four-game series with the Arizona Diamondbacks (18-32) Thursday at Chase Field. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cardinals vs. Diamondbacks odds with MLB picks and predictions.
St. Louis prevented a three-game sweep by the Chicago White Sox with a 4-0 win Wednesday but is just 4-6 in the last 10 games.
Arizona is ice-cold right now with 10 straight losses, including a 5-4 loss Wednesday to the San Francisco Giants in which the D-Backs held a four-run lead after the second inning.
Season series: 0-0.
RHP Carlos Martinez is the projected starter for the Cardinals. He is 3-4 with a 4.18 ERA (47 1/3 IP, 22 ER), 1.12 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 4.6 K/9 through eight starts.
- Last outing: No-decision in 6 IP with 2 ER, 4 H, 1 BB and 2 K vs. the Chicago Cubs Friday.
- Career vs. D-Backs: 3-1 with a 2.51 ERA (43 IP, 12 ER), 1.07 WHIP and 9.0 K/9 across six starts and six relief appearances.
- vs. D-Backs on the current roster: 56 at-bats with a .179/.270/.250 slash line, 17/6 K/BB, 0 HR and 3 RBIs.
RHP Matt Peacock makes his third career start for the D-Backs. He is 1-1 with a 4.91 ERA (22 IP, 12 ER), 1.09 WHIP, 1.2 BB/9 and 6.1 K/9 in two starts and eight relief appearances.
- Last outing: No-decision in 5 1/3 IP with 1 ER, 4 H, 0 BB and 4 K in Arizona’s 4-2 loss at the Los Angeles Dodgers last Wednesday.
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Cardinals at Diamondbacks odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:40 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Cardinals -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Diamondbacks -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Cardinals -1.5 (+140) | Diamondbacks +1.5 (-165)
- Over/Under: 9.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)
Prediction
Cardinals 11, Diamondbacks 2
Money line (ML)
BET the CARDINALS (-110) for 1 unit because I really like St. Louis’ odds off drilling Arizona’s starter, Martinez’s splits against the D-Backs are impressive and Arizona’s bullpen has the worst WAR in the majors.
Peacock doesn’t strike out a lot of batters—he grades in the 9th-percentile of K%, 2nd-percentile of whiff rate and 4th-percentile of chase rate—and he gives up a lot of hard contact (17th percentile in hard-hit rate and 35th percentile in exit velocity).
The Cardinals’ lineup has the fifth-highest contact rate and the eighth-lowest swinging strike rate. Also, Peacock’s most used pitch in his arsenal is his sinker and the heart of the St. Louis order hits the sinker well.
The two through four hitters (RF Dylan Carson, 1B Paul Goldschmidt and 3B Nolan Arenado) all have a plus-3 or higher run value vs. sinkers with a 42.4% or higher hard-hit rate and .433 or better wOBA.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
“LEAN” to the CARDINALS -1.5 (+140) for a half unit because of the aforementioned reasons and we are getting a fluffy payout.
Additionally, St. Louis is 4-1 on the run line when favored on the road and Arizona is 6-7 ATS as a home dog.
Over/Under (O/U)
Slight “LEAN” to the OVER 9.5 (+100) for a quarter unit because the St. Louis lineup is in a good spot for a big day and both teams’ situational trends skew toward the Overt.
I wouldn’t bet the Over too heavily because Martinez has good numbers against the D-Backs and he has had a quality start in four of his past five outings.
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