The Los Angeles Dodgers (29-18) visit Minute Maid Park for a two-game interleague series with the host Houston Astros (26-21). Tuesday’s first pitch is at 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Astros vs. Dodgers odds with MLB picks and predictions.
L.A. swept its past two series against the San Francisco Giants and Arizona Diamondbacks and is 11-1 in its last 12 games.
Houston was just swept by the Texas Rangers in a three-game set after winning six of seven games against the Oakland Athletics and Rangers.
LHP Clayton Kershaw makes his 11th start for the Dodgers. He is 6-3 with a 3.18 ERA (56 2/3 IP, 20 ER), 0.95 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 10.3 K/9 across 10 starts.
- Last outing: No-decision in 6 IP with 2 ER, 2 H, 1 BB and 8 K in L.A.’s 4-2 win over the Diamondbacks Wednesday.
- Career vs. Astros (regular season): 3-2 with a 2.38 ERA (53 IP, 14 ER), 1.02 WHIP and 9.0 K/9 across eight starts (last start was in 2015).
- Kershaw pitched against the Astros in three games during the 2017 World Series (two starts and one relief outing). He was 1-0 with a 4.02 ERA (15 2/3 IP, 7 ER) and 17/5 K/BB rate
- vs. Astros on the current roster (including the World Series): 70 at-bats with a .243/.274/.457 slash line, 20/2 K/BB, 3 HR and 9 RBIs.
RHP Zack Greinke is on the mound for the Astros. He is 4-1 with a 3.77 ERA (59 2/3 IP, 25 ER), 1.17 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 7.2 K/9 over 10 starts.
- Last outing: Win in 8 IP with 1 ER, 4 H, 0 BB and 8 K at the Athletics
- Career vs. Dodgers: 7-7 with a 4.60 ERA (107 2/3 IP, 55 ER), 1.35 WHIP and 8.9 K/9 across 18 starts (last start was in 2020).
- vs. Dodgers on the current roster: 52 at-bats with a .304/.364/.622 slash line, 44/20 K/BB, 17 HR and 37 RBIs.
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Dodgers at Astros odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:35 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Dodgers -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Astros +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Dodgers -1.5 (+135) | Astros +1.5 (-165)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Prediction
Astros 7, Dodgers 5
Money line (ML)
“LEAN” to the ASTROS (+100) for a half unit because they are the home team and we are getting “reverse line movement” giving us a “fade” angle on the Dodgers.
The Astros are 15-9 at home and 11-12 on the road, and the Dodgers are 13-12 in away games compared to 16-6 at home. Since this matchup is priced as pretty much a pick ’em the home/road records are differentiators.
Also, according to Pregame.com, more money and bets are on L.A.; however, the Dodgers are getting cheaper across most sportsbooks and it’s a red flag when bookmakers lower the price of the more popular side.
BetMGM hasn’t moved their line yet so it would be good to BET the ASTROS (+100) while they are still even money.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
“LEAN” to the ASTROS +0.5 (-130) FIRST 5 INNINGS for a half unit because Greinke’s numbers against the Dodgers are a bit misleading and I think he turns the game over to Houston’s bullpen giving his team a chance to win.
Two Dodgers hitters who’ve raked against Greinke aren’t available for this game with 1B Cody Bellinger (.483 batting average vs. Greinke) and SS Corey Seager (.400 batting average vs. Greinke) out of the lineup. OF Mookie Betts‘ status is questionable since he missed the past two games with shoulder soreness.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the OVER 8.5 (-105) for one-third of a unit even though we have a matchup between two all-time pitchers because these teams have a combined 13-7 O/U record when these starters are on the rubber.
Furthermore, the weather forecast predicts 12 mph winds blowing out to left-center and the market is backing the Under, which I feel is more of a robotic play on two big-name starters so I’m okay fading the more popular side.
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