The New York Yankees (27-19) go for a three-game sweep when they host the Chicago White Sox (26-18) in their series final at Yankee Stadium Sunday. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Astros vs. Rangers odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Yankees 2-0.
LHP Dallas Keuchel gets his 10th start for the White Sox. Keuchel is 3-1 with a 4.44 ERA (50 2/3 IP, 25 ER), 1.22 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 4.3 K/9 this year.
- Last outing: Win, 16-4, in 7 IP with 3 ER, 7 H, 0 BB and 6 K Monday at the Minnesota Twins.
- Career vs. the Yankees: 4-4 with a 2.22 ERA (56 2/3 IP, 14 ER), 0.92 WHIP and 9.1 K/9 across eight starts (last start in 2018).
- Vs. Yankees on the current roster: 132 at-bats with a .167/.233/.295 slash line, 38/10 K/BB, 4 HR and 13 RBIs.
RHP Jameson Taillon is the projected starter for the Yankees. Taillon is 1-3 with a 5.73 ERA (37 2/3 IP, 24 ER), 1.27 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 11.0 K/9 over eight starts.
- Last outing: No-decision in 4 1/3 IP with 4 ER, 6 H, 2 BB and 3 K in New York’s 7-4 win at the Texas Rangers Tuesday.
- Career vs. the White Sox: No-decision in 5 2/3 IP with 2 ER, 5 H, 3 BB and 5 K in one start (2018).
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White Sox at Yankees odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:30 a.m. ET.
- Money line: White Sox +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Yankees -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: White Sox +1.5 (-160) | Yankees -1.5 (+135)
- Over/Under: 9 (O: -120 | U: +100)
Prediction
Yankees 5, White Sox 3
Money line (ML)
Despite having to lay it with New York, there is some value in the YANKEES (-145) because they are starting to play like the American League favorite everyone expected them to be, and the advanced pitching metrics favor Taillon.
For instance, since falling below .500, this is New York’s seventh straight series win, and they’re 1.5 games back of the Boston Red Sox in the AL East.
Also, this hasn’t been the start Taillon was hoping to have in Pinstripes. But there are signs of progression coming, and his Statcast numbers are slightly above-average.
Taillon’s xFIP and SIERA are lower than his ERA, and those metrics are better indicators of a pitcher’s true form than the dated ERA stat. He also grades in the 64th percentile or better in whiff rate, chase rate and K%.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS because Chicago is still one of the best three teams in the AL, Keuchel has always pitched well against the Yankees dating back to his time with the Houston Astros, and New York’s lineup is still middling in production.
Over/Under (O/U)
Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 9 (+100) for a one-third unit because I’m expecting Taillon to keep the momentum as he picked up his first win in his last outing and needs to stack quality outings to keep his spot in the rotation.
Furthermore, Keuchel’s numbers vs. this Yankees lineup are terrific, and his biggest nemesis on the Yankees isn’t even in the lineup.
Giancarlo Stanton is sidelined with a quadriceps injury. Stanton has a lifetime .444 batting average with two home runs and five RBIs vs. Keuchel.
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