The Texas Rangers (18-22) tangle with the Houston Astros (22-17) Saturday in Game 3 of their four-game set at Minute Maid Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Rangers vs. Astros with MLB picks and predictions.
Houston won the first two games of this series: 4-3 in 11 innings Thursday and 10-4 Friday.
Season series: Astros 2-0.
RHP Dane Dunning is on the mound for the Rangers. Dunning is 2-2 with a 3.78 ERA (33 1/3 IP, 14 ER), 1.29 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 10.5 K/9 over 7 starts.
- Last outing: Win, 10-2, in 5 IP with 2 ER, 6 H, 3 BB and 10 K against the Seattle Mariners Sunday.
- Career vs. the Astros: No appearances.
- Statcast grades Dunning in 71st percentile in expected wOBA, 74th percentile in chase rate and 67th percentile in expected slugging percentage.
RHP Luis Garcia gets the nod for the Astros. Garcia is 0-3 with a 3.60 ERA (30 IP, 12 ER), 1.07 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 10.5 K/9 across 5 starts and 2 relief appearances.
- Last outing: No-decision in 5 1/3 IP with 3 ER, 5 H, 2 BB and 7 K in Houston’s 5-4 loss to the Los Angeles Angels Monday.
- Career vs. the Rangers: 0-0 with a 5.40 ERA (1 2/3 IP, 1 ER), 1.20 WHIP and 5.4 K/9 in 2 relief appearances.
- Statcast grades Garcia in the 83rd percentile in chase rate and exit velocity, 75th percentile in K% and 72nd percentile in whiff%.
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Rangers at Astros odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:40 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Rangers +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Astros -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Rangers +1.5 (-130) | Astros -1.5 (+105)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Prediction
Rangers 4, Astros 3
Money line (ML)
“LEAN” to the RANGERS (+155) for a half unit because Texas has an edge in starting pitching and bullpen matchups.
Dunning has a solid K% and BB% with an unconventional pitch arsenal that includes a sinker (57% usage), slider (23%), changeup (13%) and cutter (5%).
He’s a starter I’m buying stock on and Dunning is aided by this being his first appearance against this star-studded Astros lineup.
Furthermore, his FIP (2.05) is lower than his ERA (3.78) and his .348 BAbip is way above the MLB average (.299), which are signs of future progression for Dunning.
Also, Texas’s bullpen is fifth in both xFIP and SIERA, seventh in K-BB% and eighth in left-on-base percentage (all better marks than Houston’s bullpen).
Finally, I feel good enough about backing Texas’s run line that I’m willing to sprinkle on the RANGERS (+155), but if it’s either, definitely go with Texas plus 1.5 runs.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
BET the RANGERS +1.5 (-130) for 1 unit for all the aforementioned reasons and because Texas’s run line is the better play.
Also, Texas is 13-7 on the run line this season as a road dog and the Astros are 22-27 RL in Houston since the beginning of last season.
Over/Under (O/U)
In fairness to Houston, Garcia has a live arm with pretty good stuff and the Astros relievers are 10th in both xFIP and SIERA and 11th in K-BB%. So, I think we’ll have a low-scoring affair.
“LEAN” to the UNDER 8.5 (-105) for a half unit.
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