The Los Angeles Angels (16-21) square off with the Boston Red Sox (24-16) Saturday in Game 2 of their three-game set at Fenway Park. First pitch is scheduled at 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Angels vs. Red Sox with MLB picks and predictions.
Boston took Game 1 of the series 4-3 thanks to RF Hunter Renfroe’s 2-run home run in the bottom of the second and a go-ahead 2-run home run by 1B Bobby Dalbec in the bottom of the seventh.
Season series: Red Sox lead 1-0.
RHP Dylan Bundy gets the start for the Angels. Bundy is 0-4 with a 5.03 ERA (39 1/3 IP, 22 ER), 1.14 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 9.8 K/9 across 7 starts.
- Last outing: Loss, 14-11, in 3 1/3 IP with 6 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 3 K vs. the Los Angeles Dodgers May 8.
- Career vs. the Red Sox: 3-8 with a 4.99 ERA (83 IP, 46 ER), 1.54 WHIP and 6.6 K/9 across 14 starts and 4 relief appearances.
- Vs. Red Sox on the current roster: 110 at-bats with a .264/.341/.436 slash line, 32/12 K/BB, 4 HR and 13 RBIs.
LHP Martin Perez is on the rubber for the Red Sox. Perez is 0-2 with a 4.01 ERA (33 2/3 IP, 15 ER), 1.40 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 across 7 starts.
- Last outing: No-decision in 5 IP with 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB and 4 K in Boston’s 4-1 loss at the Baltimore Orioles Monday.
- Career vs. the Angels: 5-5 with a 4.30 ERA (88 IP, 42 ER), 1.52 WHIP and 4.6 K/9 across 14 starts and 4 relief appearances.
- Vs. Angels on the current roster: 90 at-bats with a .267/.394/.478 slash line, 15/19 K/BB, 4 HR and 14 RBIs.
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Angels at Red Sox odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:50 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Angels -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Red Sox -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Angels -1.5 (+135) | Red Sox +1.5 (-160)
- Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Prediction
Angels 7, Red Sox 4
Money line (ML)
GIMME the ANGELS (-115) FIRST 5 INNINGS because they have the edge in the starting pitching department, but L.A.’s bullpen is unreliable—ranked 20th in xFIP, 23rd in SIERA, 22nd in home runs per nine innings and 28th in K-BB%.
However, Bundy’s advanced pitching numbers against current Red Sox hitters are much better than Perez’s against the Angels.
Bundy has a 25.6% strikeout rate, .295 expected wOBA and 4.20 FIP, while Perez has a 14% strikeout rate, a .398 expected wOBA and 6.93 FIP.
Also, L.A.’s lineup just got more deadly as 3B Anthony Rendon was activated off of the IL for the first game of this series and Rendon has raked lefty pitchers over his career.
Prior to this season, Rendon has a 110 or higher wRC+ and a .334 or higher wOBA vs. left-handed pitching.
Furthermore, the cutter is Perez’s most used pitch in his arsenal and Rendon has a plus-run value vs. the cutter with 100% hard-hit rate and a .390 wOBA.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS because I don’t trust L.A.’s bullpen to hold a two-run lead and the Angels’ first 5 Innings run line is -0.5 (+110), which isn’t juicy enough to take a shot at.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the OVER 9.5 (-110) for a quarter unit since I like L.A.’s lineup vs. Boston’s starter in this one and the Angels could leave the backdoor wide open for the Over to cash with their lousy bullpen.
However, I’m generally much more comfortable betting sides rather than totals in baseball and that’s the case here.
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