The Memphis Grizzlies (35-33) hosts the Dallas Mavericks (40-28) Tuesday at FedExForum. Tip-off is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Mavericks-Grizzlies odds and lines, with NBA picks and predictions.
Dallas has won four in a row and seven of its last eight games (6-2 against the spread), which includes wins over the Brooklyn Nets and at the Miami Heat last week.
Memphis eked past a banged-up New Orleans Pelicans team last night in a 115-110 victory as 9.5-point home favorites for its second straight win and third in the last four games (2-2 ATS).
The Grizzlies are chasing the Golden State Warriors for eighth in the West because seeds 7-10 participate in the postseason play-in tournament with the seventh- and eighth-place teams having two games to clinch a playoff berth.
The Mavericks have beaten the Grizzlies in three straight and four of their past five meetings (3-2 ATS) since Memphis drafted Ja Morant.
Mavericks at Grizzlies: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:40 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Mavericks -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Grizzlies +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
- Against the spread/ATS: Mavericks -1.5 (-110) | Grizzlies +1.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 227.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Mavericks at Grizzlies: Key injuries
Mavericks
- PF Maxi Kleber (Achilles) questionable
- C Kristaps Porzingis (knee) out
Grizzlies
- SG Grayson Allen (abdomen) out
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Mavericks at Grizzlies: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Mavericks 113, Grizzlies 108
Money line (ML)
GIMME the MAVERICKS (-125) for 1 unit because there’s an equal play-in motivation behind each team, Dallas matches up well against Memphis and Porzingis’ is weighted heavier in the betting market than it should.
For instance, the Mavs shouldn’t be snoozing down the stretch because the Los Angeles Lakers and Portland Trail Blazers could pass them, putting Dallas in the play-in game.
Also, Memphis plays an ultra-aggressive defensive scheme that forces opponents into making turnovers, which is something Dallas doesn’t do.
The Mavs are third in turnover rate and points off of turnovers allowed per game while the Grizzlies score the second-most points off turnovers per game and the ninth-highest defensive turnover rate.
Finally, I’d argue that KP’s absence is closer to a net win than net loss for the Mavs. His replacement—C Willie Cauley-Stein—is more defensive, rebounding minded, which is what the Mavs need against sneaky good Memphis big Jonas Valančiūnas.
Furthermore, no KP means more Luka Doncic-based offense and KP has a minus-5.2 on-off net rating.
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Against the spread (ATS)
PASS on the spread unless Dallas’ money line goes north of -150 then I’d lay it with the Mavericks.
Over/Under (O/U)
I slightly “LEAN” to the UNDER 227.5 (-110) for a quarter unit because Memphis’ offense has struggled down the stretch, scoring 115 points just once in the past nine games.
The Grizzlies couldn’t break 100 points in games against the Detroit Pistons and Orlando Magic recently, and my read is the Mavs are going to slow this game down (ranked 24th in pace) and limit the possessions.
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