With Monday’s loss at Portland, the Rockets (16-53) clinched the NBA’s worst record, along with the associated draft lottery odds. However, with the 2020-21 season in its final week, there are still numerous variables that could influence Houston’s eventual first-round picks.
The teams to focus on are Miami (37-31), Portland (40-29) and Milwaukee (43-25). As of now, the Heat would have the No. 18 pick in the first round, while the Trail Blazers are at No. 22 and Bucks at No. 24.
The reasons these three teams are important to watch are as follows:
Milwaukee: Houston owns its 2021 first-round draft pick, regardless
Portland: Houston owns its 2021 first-round draft pick, lottery protected
Miami: If Houston does not land in the draft lottery’s top four (a 47.9% chance), Oklahoma City will swap Miami’s first-round selection for that of the Rockets
Once the regular season concludes on Sunday, May 16, any ties in the draft order will be broken by random draw. The usual tiebreakers for playoff seeding, such as head-to-head records, will not factor in.
With Milwaukee and Miami, the calculus for Houston fans is simple. The lower those teams are in the standings, the better for the Rockets. Right now, the Bucks are only a game behind Denver and Brooklyn. The Heat are within two games (in either direction) of Boston, Golden State, Atlanta, New York, Portland and the Los Angeles Lakers.
In Monday’s results, Milwaukee’s unexpected loss to San Antonio did help to provide a bit of cushioning in that race. Similarly, Atlanta holding off Washington gives them a half-game lead over the Heat.
The Houston Rockets have clinched the number one position heading into the lottery.
They only needed to be top 3 (assuming no 4+ teams were tied). Due of their top 4 protection, 1-3 spots are equal for them.
They have a 47.9% chance to send #5 to OKC.https://t.co/no7y6MnTo6
— Tankathon.com (@tankathon) May 11, 2021
With Portland, the calculus is slightly more complicated. Right now, the Trail Blazers are sixth in the Western Conference standings, which would ensure they qualify for the playoffs. However, they are only a game-and-a-half ahead of the Lakers, who are at No. 7. (Portland is also just a half-game behind Dallas for the No. 5 position.)
Hypothetically, if the Lakers jumped Portland for No. 6, the Blazers would have to win a game in the West play-in tournament to qualify for the playoffs. If they do not, their draft pick obligation to Houston rolls over to 2022. That effectively makes it a risk-reward balance, in terms of rooting interests for Houston fans. If Portland falls to No. 7, their 2021 pick moves slightly higher in the draft order, relative to being at No. 6. However, that would also bring in some risk of the pick not conveying at all this year, thanks to the play-in tournament. So, in terms of who to cheer for, it depends in part on how much risk each person wants to accept.
For Tuesday’s games, here’s our preferences for each pick:
Miami: Cheer for Celtics over Heat, and Lakers over Knicks
Why: The first is self-explanatory. The second is tough, because both Los Angeles and New York are only a game ahead of Miami. From Houston’s perspective, it’s unfortunate that one must lose. However, it would be slightly better if the Lakers win, since they’re also competing with Portland.
Milwaukee: Cheer for Magic over Bucks, Nuggets over Hornets, Nets over Bulls, and Clippers over Raptors.
Why: The first is quite unlikely, but self-explanatory. The other choices are about the teams slightly ahead of Milwaukee in the standings holding their current positions.
Portland: Cheer for Mavs over Grizzlies, Lakers over Knicks
Why: Dallas’ lead over Portland for the No. 5 spot is down to a half-game. Meanwhile, a Los Angeles victory could bring the defending NBA champions within a game of Portland.
We’ll post a new version of this guide each day during the final week of the NBA’s 2020-21 regular season. Stay tuned!
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