Longtime readers of this website know that myself and Doug Farrar have a bit of a running feud over Pink Floyd.
But where we find common ground is when it comes to David Gilmour, the long-time Floyd guitarist who spearheaded the band after the split with Roger Waters. It was Gilmour who was the driving force behind the latest albums released by the band, including “The Division Bell,” “Pulse,” “The Endless River” and “A Momentary Lapse of Reason.”
It is with that last album listed that I want to begin this piece, because a few lines from the track “One Slip” have been circling around my brain the past few days regarding the newest quarterback for the New England Patriots. In the wake of the organization drafting Alabama passer Mac Jones with their selection in the first round, many have made the claim that Jones is a perfect scheme fit for the New England passing game.
Which leads me to that lyric:
“Was it love, or was it the idea of being in love?
Or was it the hand of fate that seemed to fit just like a glove?”
That line cut to the quick of many a hopeless romantic after the album was released…
Some football minds have been quick to point out that Jones, despite the notion that he is an ideal scheme fit, in reality is not the one-to-one fit that people perceive him to be in New England. In recent days the brilliant Benjamin Solak made that very point in a piece titled “Does Mac Jones Fit Patriots’ Offense?” In the article Solak points out that during his time at Alabama, Jones was propped up by many of the current cheat codes that offenses use to improve quarterback play:
…the offense was pretty easy for Jones in Alabama. Jones saw 29% of his passes go behind the line of scrimmage (the most in the class) and had 41% of his total passing yardage come as a result of YAC. 19% of his dropbacks were RPOs (third-most in the class) and another 33% were the off of play-action, which was second in the class. This doesn’t detail any sort of inability on Jones’ part—Brady threw a lot under play-action in New England. But it does belie the “elite field processor” narrative thrown around Jones. Yes, he was predominately a pocket passer at Alabama—but again yes, he was buoyed by many of the common cheat codes that we’ve seen used against other passers when they transition from college to the pros.
This dovetails well with another brilliant piece from Bryce Rossler of Sports Info Solutions, who in discussing Jones as a prospect pointed this out:
More generally, his low average depth of target (ADOT) of 8.3 yards is another stat we can use to judge his arm strength. Of course, this is admittedly simplistic and is confounded by the rate at which he threw RPOs and screens. 27% of his dropbacks were RPOs or screens, and while that’s comfortably above the NCAA average of 20%, it is less conspicuous than the players hovering in the 35-50% range. This is, however, a good opportunity to segue into more systemic concerns.
A whopping 58% of Jones’ dropbacks were RPOs, screens, or play action passes. That was the third-highest rate among eligible Power 5 quarterbacks (minimum 100 attempts) and can make evaluating Jones difficult, regardless of whether you choose to do so statistically or traditionally. While he might have been effective outside of this split (0.51 Total Points/Snap), 181 plays is not a lot to work with, especially considering how good his supporting cast at Alabama was.
Beyond that, when Jones was throwing, odds are he was throwing downfield. While that bodes well for his NFL transition, it does not make for an immediate insertion into the New England passing game, at least the “Tom Brady passing game” that so many analysts thought Jones would be a perfect fit for. Returning to Solak’s piece for a moment:
When Jones did throw beyond the line of scrimmage, he threw intermediate and deep. That’s great news for his NFL projection, but it does force a contrasting look at his game relative to the New England offense. Only 30% of Jones’ throws were between 0-10 yards down the field, which was second in the class off my charting—for PFF, Jones’ 30% was second-least among all significant starters last season in college…
The McDaniels/Belichick passing game is not vertical—it simply isn’t. Even when ran with other quarterbacks, we’ve seen this hold true. Kyle Orton’s average depth of target dropped 0.8 points below average in his one season under McDaniels in Denver; Matt Cassel’s 7.7 depth of target in his 2008 season replacing the injured Brady was the second-lowest of his career; Cam Newton and Jacoby Brissett all saw their lowest aDoT when they played with the Patriots.
Solak comes to this conclusion: “But make no mistake: Jones is not a scheme fit in New England. Not the scheme they ran with Brady, at least. And either the player must take massive strides to fit in that offense, or the offense must undergo massive changes to fit the player in order for Jones to find success under Belichick, McDaniels, and the Patriots.”
This article is an attempt to highlight the changes that Josh McDaniels and the New England Patriots offense can make to turn Jones into that ideal scheme fit, and not a clarion call for a Pink Floyd lyric from decades ago.