The Atlanta Hawks (37-31) host the Washington Wizards (32-36) Monday at State Farm Arena. Tip-off is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Wizards-Hawks odds and lines, with NBA picks and predictions.
Washington has won back-to-back games and seven of the last 10 (7-2-1 against the spread) and the three losses were by a combined five points.
The Wizards’ two victories over the Indiana Pacers last week propelled them to ninth in the Eastern Conference and are 1 game back of the 8-seed Charlotte Hornets.
Seeds 7-10 participate in the postseason play-in tournament but the seventh- and eighth-place teams need to win one game while seeds nine and 10 need to win two straight.
Atlanta had its three-game winning streak snapped in a 133-126 road loss to the Pacers and is 5-5 overall in the last 10 games (5-5 ATS).
The 5-seed Hawks are ahead of the Miami Heat because of a tiebreaker and 2 games in front of the 7-seed Boston Celtics.
Atlanta smoked Washington in the first meeting this season 116-100 as 3-point road favorites.
Wizards at Hawks: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:30 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Wizards +260 (bet $100 to win $260) | Hawks -350 (bet $350 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Wizards +7.5 (-110) | Hawks -7.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 236.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Wizards at Hawks: Key injuries
Wizards
- SG Bradley Beal (hamstring) out
Hawks
- SF De’Andre Hunter (knee) questionable
- SF Tony Snell (ankle) questionable
- SG Cam Reddish (Achilles) out
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Wizards at Hawks: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Hawks 129, Wizards 119
Money line (ML)
PASS because Atlanta beat Washington pretty comfortably in the first meeting and the Wizards had both Beal and Russell Westbrook in the starting 5.
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Against the spread (ATS)
“LEAN” to the HAWKS -7.5 (-110) for 1 unit because Atlanta has the edge in the frontcourt, backcourt, and a couple of “strength vs. weakness” factors are in Atlanta’s favor.
For instance, Trae Young has played very well against Westbrook in their four career meetings. Young is averaging 27.8 points per game on .485/.467/.868 shooting with 7.8 assists per game in those contests.
One of the main pillars of Young’s game is his ability to get to the foul line, which is an area of weakness for Washington.
In fact, the Wizards have the third-highest defensive FTA/FG rate and the Hawks are second in FTA/FG rate as a team.
Also, C Clint Capela has been a dominant rebounding and shot-blocking force in the middle for the Hawks this season. Capela leads the Association in rebounding rate, which is a big reason Atlanta scores the fourth-most second-chance points per game.
On the other side, Washington is 23rd in second-chance points allowed per game and 20th in defensive rebounding rate.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the OVER 236.5 (-110) for a half unit since I believe Beal’s absence gives the Over a little value.
Washington should play less half-court offense with Beal sidelined and more uptempo to keep up with Atlanta’s offense. The Wizards already play at the fastest pace in the league and give up the most points per game.
Also, it’s telling that this Wizards-Hawks total is 236.5, the previous meeting’s total was 235.5 and, with both teams fully healthy, it went Under by 19 points. Bookmakers see the pace picking up this time around and the pace is the biggest factor in scoring.
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