The NBA’s Saturday slate brings us some possible play-in previews and a cross-conference showdown between two of the Association’s finest teams. Below, we’ll highlight Saturday’s top NBA player prop predictions.
The 10th-place Washington Wizards visiting the 9-seed Indiana Pacers for their second game this week is the would-be 9- vs. 10-seed game in the Eastern Conference play-in if the regular season ended today.
The West Coast primetime game features the third-place team of each conference when the Denver Nuggets host Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving and the Brooklyn Nets.
Another sneaky important Pacific time zone game is on the docket with the 10-seed San Antonio Spurs meet the 6-seed Portland Trail Blazers as both teams are jockeying for playoff positioning.
Saturday’s NBA player prop bet predictions
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:40 p.m. ET.
Washington Wizards PF Rui Hachimura OVER 13.5 points (-120)
Hachimura has balled out in the first two Wizards-Pacers meetings this season, and Indiana has been playing matador defense since the All-Star Game.
In two Wizards-Pacers games this year, Hachimura is averaging 26.5 points per game on 55.8% field goal shooting.
Hachimura has also increased his points per game to 15.1 PPG and his shooting to 49.5% post-All-Star break from 12.5 PPG and 45.7% shooting pre-All-Star break.
The key to Hachimura’s uptick in scoring is due to his development of a solid midrange jumper, which is helped immensely by Russell Westbrook ripping through defenses and opposing defenses focusing on Bradley Beal‘s skillset.
Also, the Pacers are ranked 22nd in defensive rating post-All-Star break and are surrendering the most paint points per game in the NBA.
Finally, Indiana allows the most points per game to opposing power forwards on the fourth-worst defensive field goal percentage vs. power forwards.
BET Hachimura OVER 13.5 POINTS (-120) for 1.25 units.
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Memphis Grizzlies C Jonas Valančiūnas OVER 12.5 rebounds (+105)
Memphis Grizzlies taking on the Toronto Raptors is a tale of two motivations as the Raptors have all but quit on their 2020-21 campaign while Memphis is jostling for seeding in the Western Conference play-in tournament.
The reason I lead with the “motivation” angle for Valančiūnas’ rebounding prop is that there’s no clearer indication of motivation than rebounding rates and Toronto is one of the worst rebounding teams in the league.
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This is a fantastic matchup for Valančiūnas because not only is he averaging a career-best 12.3 rebounds per game this season and going against the Raptors, but he also has the “revenge” motivation after beginning his career in Toronto.
In the first Grizzlies-Raptors meeting, Valančiūnas grabbed 20 boards (tied for the second-most vs. any team this season) and he has snagged at least 15 rebounds in four of his previous five games.
Lastly, Toronto is tied for the ninth-most rebounds per game allowed to opposing centers and the Raptors have the fourth-lowest rebounding rate.
BET Valančiūnas OVER 12.5 rebounds (+105) for a three-fourths unit.
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