The Detroit Tigers (8-22) take on the Boston Red Sox (18-12) in the middle tilt of their three-game set at Fenway Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Tigers vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Boston jumped out to an early 7-2 lead after the second inning and held on to beat Detroit 11-7 Tuesday. All in all, it was a solid team effort for the BoSox who had 4 home runs as a team.
Season Series: Red Sox lead 1-0.
RHP Casey Mize is on the mound for the Tigers. He is 1-3 with a 5.06 ERA (26 2/3 IP, 15 ER), 1.39 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 6.8 K/9 over 5 starts.
- Last outing: Loss in 6 IP with 3 ER, 4 H, 3 BB and 6 K in Detroit’s 3-1 loss to the Chicago White Sox Thursday.
LHP Martín Pérez gets the start for the Red Sox. He is 0-2 with a 4.70 ERA (23 IP, 12 ER), 1.48 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 across 5 starts.
- Last outing: Loss in 5 2/3 IP with 1 ER, 5 H, 0 BB and 7 K in Boston’s 4-1 loss at the Texas Rangers Thursday.
- Career vs. Tigers: 2-4 with a 6.81 ERA (37 IP, 28 ER), 1.54 WHIP and 8.3 K/9 over 7 starts and 1 relief appearance.
- vs. Tigers on the current roster: 63 at-bats with a .333/.427/.508 slash line and 2 HR.
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Tigers at Red Sox odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:25 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Tigers +150 (bet $100 to win $150) | Red Sox -185 (bet $185 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Tigers +1.5 (-130) | Red Sox -1.5 (+105)
- Over/Under: 9 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Prediction
Tigers 5, Red Sox 3
Money line (ML)
Detroit is impossibly bad vs. left-handed pitching this season. The Tigers are dead-last in wRC+, wOBA, OPS and home run to fly-ball rate. They are last by a wide margin in each of these categories.
In fact, Detroit almost cannot hit worse against lefties so it’s due for some progression toward the mean. Pérez being on the hill could be the perfect slump buster as this Tigers lineup has raked against Pérez when they’ve faced him.
Mize has been inconsistent so far this season but he was the No. 1 overall pick in the 2018 MLB Amateur Draft and has electric stuff.
“LEAN” to the TIGERS (+150) for a half unit only because there’s better value with Detroit’s run line.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
BET the TIGERS +1.5 (-130) for three-fourths of a unit for some insurance on our Detroit money line pick.
Detroit’s bullpen is awful and Boston’s is top-10 in several advanced pitching categories. I wouldn’t put it past the Tigers relievers to blow away a strong outing from Mize
Over/Under (O/U)
Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 9 (-105) for a quarter unit because of Detroit’s aforementioned troubles vs. lefties and Boston’s reliable ‘pen.
These teams also have a combined 2-7 O/U record with Wednesday’s two starters on the mound.
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