Two weeks out from the 2021 PGA Championship, the PGA Tour stops at Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, North Carolina, for the Wells Fargo Championship. Below, we’ll look for the best value prop bets in the 2021 Wells Fargo Championship odds, with matchups, placings and first-round leader picks and predictions.
The event returns to the PGA Tour schedule after it was canceled in 2020 amid the COVID-19 pandemic. Max Homa returns as the defending champion from 2019. He’ll be challenged by a strong field featuring eight of the top-10 golfers in the Golfweek/Sagarin world rankings.
Odds provided by BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 8:45 a.m. ET.
Wells Fargo Championship: Odds | Tee times
Matchups
Xander Schauffele vs. Viktor Hovland (-105)
Schauffele and Hovland enter the week second and fourth, respectively, in the Golfweek rankings. As such, Hovland is a slight underdog in this 72-hole matchup as he makes his debut at Quail Hollow.
The Norwegian is coming off a T-3 finish at the difficult Copperheard for the Valspar Championship; Schauffele has been off of tournament play since his T-3 finish at the Masters.
Schauffele also has poor course history at Quail Hollow with a T-72 finish in 2018 and a missed cut at the 2017 PGA Championship played here.
Justin Thomas vs. Jon Rahm (-110)
The top-two tournament betting favorites are pitted in a 72-hole matchup priced as a pick ’em. Rahm is No. 1 in the Golfweek rankings and Thomas enters the week sixth in the world. Neither played here in 2019 but Thomas tied for 21st in 2018.
Rahm leads the Tour with 2.28 total strokes gained on the field per round this season. Thomas leads in Strokes Gained: Approach, but Rahm is the longer hitter and that will provide the advantage at the 7,500-yard, par-71 venue.
Placings
Top 10: Doc Redman (+1600)
Redman tied for 18th at the 2019 Wells Fargo Championship with 1.20 SG: Off-the-Tee per round. His early 2021 form has been ugly with five missed cuts through nine events, but he tied for 39th at last week’s Valspar Championship with 0.79 SG: Off-the-Tee per round.
At his best, his game is well-suited to Quail Hollow. The venue could help him round back into form.
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Top South American: Joaquin Niemann (+110)
We cashed this ticket on Neimann last week with his T-8 finish at the Valspar. He only narrowly edged out Camilo Villegas (T-11), but a win is a win.
Double down this week with Niemann’s 1.38 SG: Tee-to-Green and 1.72 total strokes gained per round both easily ranked as the best in this four-man group.
First-round leader
Rory McIlroy (+2800)
McIlroy is my pick to win this week as the former world No. 1 looks to move past a missed cut at the Masters ahead of 2021’s second major. The recently-turned 32-year-old leads this field with 2.76 strokes gained per round at Quail Hollow and two Wells Fargo titles.
He offers a higher payout for the 18-hole lead than he does to win the event (+1800). He’ll receive a boost by playing his opening round with Ryder Cup rival Patrick Reed.
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