The Detroit Tigers (8-20) try to prevent a three-game sweep by the New York Yankees (13-14) Sunday when they meet for a 1:05 p.m. ET first pitch at Yankee Stadium. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Tigers vs. Yankees odds with MLB picks and predictions.
The Yankees beat the Tigers in the first two games by a combined score of 16-4 thanks to an eruption by RF Aaron Judge, who is 5-for-9 with 2 HR and 8 RBIs so far in this series.
Season series: Yankees 2-0.
RHP José Ureña makes his sixth start of the season for the Tigers Sunday. Ureña is 1-3 with a 3.77 ERA (28 2/3 IP, 12 ER), 1.43 WHIP, 4.7 BB/9 and 6.6 K/9 this season.
- Last outing: Win in 7 IP with 1 ER, 7 H, 3 BB and 2 K in Detroit’s 5-2 victory at the Chicago White Sox Tuesday (4 days rest).
- Career vs. the Yankees: 0-1 with a 2.16 ERA (8 1/3 IP, 2 ER), 1.68 WHIP and 3.2 K/9 in 2 starts, both at Yankee Stadium.
RHP Corey Kluber takes the mound for the Yankees. Kluber is 1-2 with a 4.15 ERA (21 2/3 IP, 10 ER), 1.71 WHIP, 5.4 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 across 5 starts.
- Last outing: Win in 6 2/3 IP with 1 ER, 6 H, 2 BB and 5 K in New York’s 5-1 victory at the Baltimore Orioles Tuesday.
- Career vs. the Tigers: 12-7 with a 3.48 ERA (163 IP, 63 ER), 1.15 WHIP and 9.6 K/9 over 25 starts and 1 relief appearance.
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Tigers at Yankees odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:27 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Tigers +220 (bet $100 to win $220) | Yankees -275 (bet $275 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Tigers +1.5 (+115) | Yankees -1.5 (-140)
- Over/Under: 9 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Prediction
Yankees 9, Tigers 2
Money line (ML)
PASS because New York’s bats are starting to come alive, but the Yankees’ ML price (-275) is too rich for my blood.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Kluber just had his best outing of the season last time out and is very familiar with the Tigers from his nine-year stint with the AL Central rival Cleveland Indians from 2011-19.
He’s won five straight games against Detroit—all of which were quality starts—Kluber has a 0.94 ERA and a 42/3 K/BB ratio in those games.
Kluber is set up well for another strong outing since Detroit’s lineup is in the bottom-5 teams in wRC+, wOBA and OPS vs. right-handed pitching this season.
However, since there’s a lot of vig for New York’s regular run line, I “LEAN” to the YANKEES -1.5 (+100) in the FIRST 5 INNINGS for a half unit.
Over/Under (O/U)
GIMME the OVER 9 (-105) for a three-fourths unit for a few reasons.
First, despite Kluber’s historical dominance against Detroit, the current Tigers hitters have solid production in the batter’s box vs. Kluber.
For instance, in 136 at-bats, Detroit’s current lineup is slashing .309/.343/.574 slash line (batting average/on-base percentage/slugging percentage) with 9 HR and 18 RBIs. So perhaps, the Tigers do a little damage early to Kluber and chip in on this Over.
Second, I like New York’s chances at chasing Ureña early and Detroit’s ‘pen has the highest home run per 9 innings rate, the third-highest SIERA and fourth-highest xFIP.
Lastly, Yankee Stadium is notoriously a hitter-friendly ballpark and the weather forecast predicts double-digit MPH winds blowing out to center field.
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