The Detroit Tigers (4-6) meet the Houston Astros (6-4) Tuesday for the second game of a three-game set at Minute Maid Park. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Tigers vs. Astros odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Detroit’s lineup smacked around Houston starting RHP Zack Greinke Monday for six earned runs on 10 hits, including three home runs, in 4 2/3 innings.
Tigers RHP Casey Mize pitched seven scoreless innings, striking out five and walking only two in Detroit’s 6-2 win.
Season series: Tigers 1-0
LHP Matthew Boyd (1-1) is on the mound Tuesday for the Tigers.
Boyd took a loss in his last outing against the Minnesota Twins Wednesday. He pitched seven innings and allowed three earned runs on seven hits with eight K’s and no walks in a 3-2 defeat.
- Career vs. Astros: 2-1 with a 5.91 ERA (21 1/3 IP, 14 ER, 23 H), 17 K and 6 BB over 4 starts
RHP Jake Odorizzi makes his Astros debut after pitching the previous three seasons for the Twins.
- Career vs. Tigers: 6-1 with a 3.09 ERA (67 IP, 23 ER, 51 H), 75 K and 21 BB over 12 starts
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Tigers at Astros odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:34 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Tigers +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Astros -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Tigers +1.5 (-115) | Astros -1.5 (-105)
- Over/Under: 9 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Prediction
Astros 8, Tigers 3
Money line (ML)
PASS because even though I like Houston, the Astros’ -190 is out of my price range. Both sides of the market are backing Houston in this spot and the value, if there is any, is drying up.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
“LEAN” to the ASTROS -1.5 (-105) for a half unit because Houston has an edge in the starting pitcher matchup and plays well vs. lefties.
The Astros are 4-2 this season vs. left-handed starters and had a winning record against lefties last season despite having an overall losing record.
Since the beginning of last season, the Astros are above-average in wRC+, wOBA and OPS vs. lefties.
Also, if Boyd doesn’t eat up a lot of innings in his start, Houston could rake a Detroit bullpen that’s dead-last in ERA.
Over/Under (O/U)
Slight “LEAN” to the OVER 9 (-105) for a quarter unit because whether it’s against Boyd or Detroit’s ‘pen, the Astros should score at least seven runs and. Plus, I still want to see how Odorizzi looks after having an injury-plagued 2020.
Furthermore, the market slightly prefers the Under hence it is more expensive.
I’d rather fade than follow the market considering it’s betting an Under in a matchup between starting pitchers that both had an above 6.50 ERA in 2020.
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