The Detroit Tigers (3-6) and Houston Astros (6-3) open a three-game Minute Maid Park set Monday evening at 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Tigers vs. Astros odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Casey Mize is the projected starting pitcher for the Tigers.
Over one start this season and seven a year ago, he is 0-3 with a 6.40 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 8.4 K/9, and 4.2 BB/9 in 32 1/3 IP. Mize allowed one run in a four-inning season debut (April 6 vs. Minnesota Twins).
RHP Zack Greinke is the projected starter for the Astros.
He has allowed just two runs through his first 13 IP this season. In 14 starts over 2020-21, Greinke is 4-3 with a 3.60 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 8.4 K/9, and 1.1 BB/9 in 80 IP. The veteran righty owns a 3.44 ERA over 19 career starts at Minute Maid.
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Tigers at Astros odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:41 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Tigers +185 (bet $100 to win $185) | Astros -225 (bet $225 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Tigers +1.5 (+100) | Astros -1.5 (-120)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Prediction
Astros 6, Tigers 4
Money line (ML)
These two clubs head into the series ranked third (Houston) and 27th (Detroit) in OPS. The Astros have been making solid contact (7.8 K/9) while notching 6.2 runs per contest.
There isn’t enough ammo to recommend Mize and the Tigers side in this play. And the Houston tag figures as too steep. PASS.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
TAKE THE ASTROS -1.5 (-120). The Houston offense is clicking, and the starter matchup — while perhaps not the slam dunk differential it appears to be — can give the home nine an early cushion.
Over/Under (O/U)
Minute Maid is a good home-run hitter’s park, and Mize is a question mark as to getting through the mid-innings without coughing up three or four runs.
Greinke has exhibited an uptick in velocity and has done well to limit hard contact through his first two starts. But the 37-year-old hasn’t missed a lot of bats, as evidenced by a 6.7% swinging-strike rate.
Throw in two bullpens which have looked like second-division units so far and some room to grow for a Tigers offense thus far undone by a .242 batting average on balls in play. And you work your way to solid value on the OVER 8.5 (-105).
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