The top-seeded Gonzaga Bulldogs (30-0) face the 11th-seeded UCLA Bruins (22-9) Saturday in the Final Four’s second semifinal. Tip-off is scheduled for 8:34 p.m. ET at Indianapolis’ Lucas Oil Stadium (on CBS). Below, we analyze the Gonzaga-UCLA odds and lines, with March Madness NCAA Tournament picks and predictions.
The Bulldogs are two wins shy of becoming the first undefeated champion since Bobby Knight’s 1976 Indiana Hoosiers. They are the third unbeaten team – joining 1991 UNLV and 2015 Kentucky – to make the Final Four since the tourney expanded to 64 teams in 1985.
Gonzaga, No. 1 in the Ferris Mowers Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports, is 1-1 all time in the Final Four and has never won a national title.
Behind sophomore F Drew Timme (21.3 points and 7.5 rebounds per game), senior F Corey Kispert (17.3 PPG, 15-for-30 3-pointers), junior G Joel Ayayi (12.3 PPG, 7.8 RPG), and freshman G Jalen Suggs (12.3 PPG), the Zags outscored their four NCAA Tournament opponents by an average of 24.0 PPG.
UCLA barely made the tourney. The Bruins were one of the last teams in and had to play a First Four game, where they rallied late to eliminate Michigan State 86-80 in overtime.
The Bruins, who own a record-11 national titles but haven’t won since 1995, also needed OT in the Sweet 16 when they knocked out No. 2 seed Alabama 88-78. UCLA then upset top-seeded and 6.5-point favorite Michigan 51-49 to earn its first Final Four berth since 2008.
In their five tourney games, sophomore guards Johnny Juzang and Jaime Jaquez Jr. averaged 21.6 PPG and 14.2 PPG, respectively. Junior G Jules Bernard pulled down a team-high 7.0 RPG, and Juzang went 12-for-34 behind the 3-point arc.
The winner advances to Monday’s National Championship to face either top-seeded Baylor or No. 2 seed Houston, who play Saturday’s first game.
Gonzaga vs. UCLA: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 6:50 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Gonzaga -1250 (bet $1,250 to win $100) | UCLA +750 (bet $100 to win $750)
- Against the spread/ATS: Gonzaga -14 (-110) | UCLA +14 (-110)
- Over/Under: 145.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Gonzaga vs. UCLA: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Gonzaga 84, UCLA 64
Money line (ML)
AVOID. Gonzaga will win, but -1250 is way too expensive.
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Against the spread (ATS)
GONZAGA -14 (-110) is the STRONGEST PLAY – 1½ times your usual wager.
While UCLA covered the spread in each of its tourney games – winning four as an underdog – and held opponents to 63.2 PPG, it’s hard to bet against Gonzaga.
The Zags covered all four of their tourney games and, even more impressive, won their last 27 games by double digits, which is a Division I-record.
ATS records: Gonzaga 16-12-2 | UCLA 17-14
Over/Under (O/U)
Back the OVER 145.5 (-110) with a HALF-UNIT play.
Toss out the “easy” 98-55 first-round rout of No. 16 Norfolk State and Gonzaga still averaged 85.0 PPG in its next three NCAA victories (against Oklahoma, Creighton and USC).
The reason for the half-unit wager is because of UCLA’s suffocating defense, which held its tourney opponents to 63.2 PPG. Facing Gonzaga should be a whole different story, however.
O/U records: Gonzaga 15-15 | UCLA 17-14
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| JOHNNY PARLAY’S RECORD | W-L | SP | ROI |
| College hoops since Jan. 1 | 78-68-1 | 36-36 | +3.9575 |
| 2021 record (all sports) | 98-86-1 | 48-41 | +8.925 |
| *–SP: Strongest plays; ROI: Return on investment | |||
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