The top-seeded Michigan Wolverines (23-4) and the 11th-seeded UCLA Bruins (21-9) face off in an Elite 8 battle Tuesday. Tip-off is scheduled for 9:57 p.m. ET at Indianapolis’ Lucas Oil Stadium (on TBS). Below, we analyze the Michigan-UCLA odds and lines, with March Madness NCAA Tournament picks and predictions.
Despite losing senior F Isaiah Livers to a season-ending foot injury in their Big Ten Tournament opener, the Wolverines rolled to three impressive victories to earn their second Elite Eight berth since 2018.
They beat fourth-seeded Florida State 76-58 (Sunday in the Sweet 16 as 1.5-point favorites), No. 8 seed LSU 86-78 (second round as 4-point favorites), and No. 16 seed Texas Southern 82-66 (first round but failed to cover as 24.5-point favorites).
In the three wins, Big Ten Freshman of the Year C Hunter Dickinson averaged a team-best 14.0 points with 7.0 rebounds per game, while sophomore G Franz Wagner has been UM’s top rebounder with 8.7 RPG.
UCLA upset 7-point favorite and second-seeded Alabama 88-78 in overtime Sunday to advance to the program’s first Elite Eight since 2008. Barely making the NCAA Tournament as a First Four team, the Bruins had to play an extra tourney game.
They beat Michigan State 86-80 in overtime (First Four as 2.5-point underdogs), sixth-seeded BYU 73-62 (first round as 3.5-point dogs) and No. 14 seed Abilene Christian 67-47 (second round as 5.5-point favorites).
Sophomore Gs Johnny Juzang and Jaime Jaquez Jr. have led the Bruins’ scoring attack in the tourney while averaging 20.0 and 16.8 PPG, respectively. Jaquez also has a team-high 6.8 RPG.
The winner advances to a Final Four matchup Saturday against Houston, which won the Midwest Region as a No. 2 seed.
Michigan vs. UCLA: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:05 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Michigan -300 (bet $300 to win $100) | UCLA +240 (bet $100 to win $240)
- Against the spread/ATS: Michigan -6.5 (-110) | UCLA +6.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 134.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Michigan vs. UCLA: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Michigan 72, UCLA 61
Money line (ML)
AVOID. Michigan’s ML price of -300 is not worth the risk.
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Against the spread (ATS)
MICHIGAN -6.5 (-110) is the way to go. Behind 7-foot-1 Dickinson and 6-9 Wagner, the Wolverines will prove too tall for the Bruins, whose tallest starter is 6-9 junior F Cody Riley. Michigan outrebounded its first three foes in the tourney 33.7 to 25.3.
The Wolverines are also the better shooting team. They’ve hit 50.3% from the field and 75.7% from the line during the tourney, while the Bruins are shooting 44.7% and 67.6%, respectively.
ATS records: Michigan 19-8 | UCLA 16-14
Over/Under (O/U)
The UNDER 134.5 (-110) is worth a HALF-UNIT bet – based on the recent tournament trend, which is 3-7 O/U in the last 10 games.
All four of Saturday’s Sweet 16 games finished Under. Sunday’s contests went 2-2 O/U but would have been 1-3 had it not been for the UCLA-Alabama overtime game. Monday’s two Elite 8 matchups split 1-1 O/U.
Michigan’s defense also has allowed just 65.6 PPG across its 27 games, including tournament games where it held FSU to 58 points and Texas Southern to 66 points.
O/U records: Michigan 11-16 | UCLA 17-13
Note: There is no STRONGEST PLAY (1½ times your usual wager) on this card.
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| JOHNNY PARLAY’S RECORD | W-L | SP | ROI |
| College hoops since Jan. 1 | 77-67-1 | 36-36 | +4.575 |
| 2021 record (all sports) | 97-81-1 | 48-39 | +14.9 |
| *–SP: Strongest plays; ROI: Return on investment | |||
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