The New England Patriots entered the start of the NFL’s legal tampering period — whatever that is — with the third-most cap space in the league. They did not hesitate to put that capital to use. During a whirlwind Monday the Patriots reached agreements with a number of new faces in a bevy of deals worth (potentially) north of $170 million dollars. So that begs the question:
Will it work?
Before we try and answer this question first, a quick recap. The day began with the Patriots reaching an agreement with tight end Jonnu Smith. They then added defensive tackle Davon Godchaux. Linebacker/EDGE Matthew Judon was next, followed by Jalen Mills. As day turned to night, Belichick addressed the wide receiver room, reaching deals with both Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne. That is a ton of player movement. They even snuck in one final deal before the night was over, adding defensive lineman Henry Anderson.
But, Mark. Will it work?
The honest response to that is: Ask me in six months. Because right now a lot of the analysis is speculative, including the grading that myself and Doug Farrar tried to assign to each move. But these are just pieces to a puzzle, and Belichick is putting that puzzle together without showing us what the finished product is supposed to look like.
So we will not know for months whether these moves are going to work, or are going to fail spectacularly.
But we can gleam a few things from them.
Free agency and the draft are the two periods of time during the NFL season when you get a true sense of how a team feels about their roster, and about the various position groups. You can say you love your tight end room during media availabilities, but making a big signing at that position says otherwise. You can say you love the wide receiver room, but adding two different players on the first day of free agency speaks volumes.
Furthermore, what a team does in free agency also illustrates what they believe their true needs are. Consider this, from Mike Renner of Pro Football Focus:
Free agency is for need
The draft is for value
If you want to plug holes in your roster, do it this week and not the end of April
— Mike Renner (@PFF_Mike) March 15, 2021
We all love the draft, but as Renner continues to point out:
There were only 9 total rookie defenders last season that played 400+ snaps and earned grades over 65.0
The chance of finding impact rookies – especially outside the top 10 – is almost always overestimated
— Mike Renner (@PFF_Mike) March 15, 2021
If you have a need, it is better to address it via free agency. Unless you are willing to wait and let players develop.
That might also be a lesson. Pin that thought.
So let’s walk through what Belichick might be telling us with these moves, as well as illustrating how they can work out, and how they might just fail.