What the Trent Brown trade tells us about Bill Belichick’s thinking

The New England Patriots traded for offensive tackle Trent Brown. Is this a window into their thinking at quarterback?

During Bill Belichick’s time as the head coach and de facto general manager of the New England Patriots, a number of players have enjoyed second stints playing under him in Foxborough. The latest to join that list is offensive tackle Trent Brown, who after signing with the Las Vegas Raiders in free agency two years ago returns to New England as part of a reported trade. In exchange for a fifth-round selection, the Patriots acquired Brown and a seventh-round pick.

What, if anything, does the Trent Brown trade tell us about Bill Belichick’s thinking about the future of the Patriots offense?

Generally speaking, trying to get into Belichick’s mind is a dangerous proposition and one that leads to failure. Believe me, I have tried many times before, such as last off-season when I argued that Jarrett Stidham was going to be New England’s plan at quarterback just weeks before the team signed Cam Newton. Although to be fair, I did say that Newton would be a better option if team and player could agree on a contract…

But back to Brown.

The massive offensive tackle — and owner of one of the league’s more colorful tattoos — returns to New England, where he won a Super Bowl ring as part of the 2018-2019 Patriots. That season Brown was given the task of protecting Tom Brady’s blindside, a task that he performed at a high level. That season Brown allowed just three sacks while playing a career-high 1,090 offensive snaps. Now part of that is likely due to the structure of New England’s offense that season, which placed a premium on getting the ball out quickly as it did during Brady’s entire New England career, but Brown was a focal point of their pass protection plan.

He was also pretty dominant in the run game, even when the play was not entirely successful:

More on the run game and perhaps a little return of “bully ball” in a moment.

However, ask any Patriots fan and they do not care about the past. They want to know about the future, and who will be under center next season for New England. Is there anything they can gleam from this acquisition?

There are some who believe so. For example Matt Chatham, who won three rings of his own in New England, believes that the Brown trade is a signal as to what kind of offense — and by extension quarterback — the Patriots could be targeting right now:

With the rest of the league looking at mobility and athleticism at quarterback, could New England be looking for more of the throwback pocket passer? Is the trade for Brown a window into this thinking?

Perhaps.

Say what you want about Belichick but he often is ahead of the game when it comes to football’s cyclical schematic nature. Belichick’s offenses moved to more of the “spread you out approach” years ago with Brady, and additionally they were at the forefront of the more dual tight end approach we have seen from other teams in recent years, using the tight end position to create mismatches all over the offense. Certainly it helps when you have Rob Gronkowski as that kind of player.

So as defenses around the league gear up to focus on stopping the pass, playing lighter in the box, playing more two-high safety looks, and placing a premium on athleticism at the second level of the defense, maybe there is a pathway towards focusing on a more power-based approach. An offense looking to rely on the run game and a pocket passer could have success.

This was something I argued recently and perhaps Belichick is looking to tap into that. He is known for a willingness to exploit market inefficiencies, as we have seen with how he works the compensatory pick market…as he did two seasons ago when Brown first left in free agency. This could be the next evolution in that process. The league gets smaller and faster on defense, so Belichick swings in the opposite direction, exploits the inefficiencies created when players fitting those roles are passed over in the draft and free agency, and the offense then has success against defenses that are not built to stop such a scheme.

Therefore, if you really look into the tea leaves hard enough, that might lead you to perhaps another return, of say Jimmy Garoppolo, to the Patriots. Or maybe even a Mac Jones via the draft, a player often linked to New England this off-season.

Perhaps.

That, coupled with a power running game, might be the approach. After all, think of the two most important touchdowns from New England during that run to Super Bowl LIII, when Brown was still with the team. First, the overtime game-winner against the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship game:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rW5PzD3Qvko

Then the only touchdown of Super Bowl LIII:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JFYxrsb_i9Q

Both plays run out of a heavy personnel package right behind Brown.

So there you have it, the 2021 Patriots (and perhaps beyond) will be marked on offense by a return to the gap/power designs and bully ball nature that were the hallmark of their run to Super Bowl LIII. Next season’s offense will not look anything like the spread-based systems of the earlier Brady years, and certainly not like last year’s version. Under center, play-action plays and a heavy dose of 21 personnel are going to be the focal points.

This might indeed be the plan, but if I have learned anything from covering Belichick’s Patriots over the years nothing is ever as it seems, he manages to zig when you think he is zagging, and “X” almost never marks the spot. So while he might be building this kind of offense, exploiting the market inefficiencies created by the schematic changes we are seeing on the defensive side of the football…he might not.

After all, he could be indeed be exploiting a market inefficiency, but one more financial-based. Brown was due just over $19 million on the last two years of his deal with the Raiders, and given that Las Vegas was facing a bit of a cap crunch, Belichick was able to swoop in and provide Las Vegas with a bit of relief. In exchange, of course, for Brown’s services. For the Raiders, they do get out of paying him $13.7 million in base salary in 2021 and $15 million in 2022.

And Belichick now has a new piece up front. This could spell the end of Joe Thuney’s time with the Patriots, but New England has pieces to play with along the offensive line. Perhaps Brown slides right into the left tackle spot and Isaiah Wynn replaces Thuney. Or maybe Brown is their new right tackle, and second-year player Michael Onwenu is the Thuney replacement.

Belichick has options now, and perhaps in terms of both an offensive line combination, and an offense to run. After all, the thinking here might simply be that Belichick is adding a piece to help them on offense, and this means nothing about what the Patriots are going to look like offensively…and who will be running that offense.

Maybe this move is telling us everything about Belichick’s thinking in terms of offensive philosophy. Or maybe it is telling us nothing at all.