The Michigan Wolverines (19-2 overall, 14-2 Big Ten) visit the Michigan State Spartans (14-11, 8-11) Sunday in one of four conference games on the final day of the regular season. Tip-off is scheduled for 4:30 p.m. ET at Breslin Center in East Lansing, Mich. Below, we analyze the Michigan-Michigan State college basketball odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
The second-ranked Wolverines lead a group of four Big Ten teams in the top 10 of the Ferris Mowers Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports. Illinois is No. 4, Iowa is No. 8 and Ohio State 10th.
Michigan has already clinched the Big Ten regular-season title and the conference tournament’s No. 1 seed. Win or lose Sunday, Michigan State is locked into the No. 9 seed in next week’s Big Ten tourney.
Illinois at Michigan: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:15 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Michigan -400 (bet $400 to win $100) | Michigan State +310 (bet $100 to win $310)
- Against the spread/ATS: Michigan -8.5 (-105) | Michigan State +8.5 (-115)
- Over/Under: 135.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Michigan at Michigan State: Three things to know
- Michigan clinched the Big Ten regular-season crown with a 69-50 home win as a 12-point favorite over Michigan State Thursday. Wolverines sophomore G Franz Wagner tallied a game-high 19 points and freshman Hunter Dickinson added 14 points and 10 rebounds. Junior F Aaron Henry was the only Spartans player to score in double figures, totaling 14 points.
- Before Thursday’s victory, Michigan suffered a surprising 76-53 home loss to Illinois Tuesday as an 8.5-point favorite. The upset snapped a 7-game win streak by the Wolverines and was just their second loss of the season. Dickinson leads the Wolverines in scoring with 14.4 points per game, 7.8 rebounds per game and 1.5 blocks per game.
- Michigan State is 1-2 in its last three games, sandwiching a 64-58 win against Indiana between the Michigan loss and an ugly 73-55 setback at Maryland last Sunday. The Spartans are 4-6 ATS in their last 10 contests, but the NCAA Tournament selection committee doesn’t care about ATS records. Henry averages team-bests with 15.4 PPG, 3.5 APG, 1.3 SPG and 1.4 BPG.
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Michigan at Michigan State: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Michigan 66, Michigan State 54
Money line (ML)
PASS. Michigan State will complete the two-game sweep, but the -400 ML price is too chalky.
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Against the spread (ATS)
MICHIGAN -8.5 (-105) is the STRONGEST PLAY – 1½ times your usual wager. While the Spartans are 11-3 at home and really need a win as a bubble team, there’s no reason to think they’ll narrow the gap from Thursday’s 19-point loss.
Michigan’s defense ranks seventh in the country, holding opponents to 38.7% shooting from the field. Offensively, Michigan State is 258th in the country with a 42.4 field-goal percentage.
Thursday, MSU was held to a 36.4 FG% and went 0-for-9 behind the 3-point arc. Expect more of the same in this one.
ATS: Michigan 16-5 | Michigan State 8-17
Over/Under (O/U)
Back the UNDER 135.5 (-105). Michigan surrenders a Big Ten-best 63.6 PPG in conference games. Combine that with MSU’s shooting woes, and the Spartans will be lucky to score 55 points.
O/U records: Michigan 8-13 | Michigan State 10-15
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| JOHNNY PARLAY’S RECORD | W-L | SP | ROI |
| College hoops since Jan. 1 | 66-57-1 | 29-31 | +3.6 |
| 2020-21 College hoops | 81-74-1 | 34-41 | -3.125 |
| 2021 record (all sports) | 84-68-1 | 40-33 | +15.9 |
| *–SP: Strongest plays; ROI: Return on investment | |||
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