The Denver Nuggets (19-15) stop by Fiserv Forum Tuesday for a 9 p.m. ET tip-off against the Milwaukee Bucks (21-13). Below, we analyze the Nuggets-Bucks odds and lines, with NBA picks and predictions.
Denver defeated the Chicago Bulls 118-112 Monday for its second straight win and third in its last four games. The Nuggets have been up-and-down of late, going 4-4 straight up and 3-5 against the spread over their previous eight games.
The Bucks had maybe their most impressive win of the season Sunday by taking down the Los Angeles Clippers 105-100 as 1.5-point home favorites. Milwaukee is starting to find its stride as winners of five in a row entering Tuesday.
The Nuggets won and covered both of last year’s regular-season meetings with the Bucks but were crushed 125-112 as 2-point home underdogs Feb. 8 of this season.
Nuggets at Bucks: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:35 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Nuggets +230 (bet $100 to win $230) | Bucks -275 (bet $275 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Nuggets +7 (-110) | Bucks -7 (-110)
- Over/Under: 235.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Nuggets at Bulls: Key injuries
Nuggets
- PF JaMychal Green (shoulder) out
- SG Gary Harris (thigh) out
- PF Paul Millsap (knee) out
- PG Facundo Campazzo (health and safety protocols) out
Bucks
Nothing affecting the betting odds.
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Nuggets at Bucks: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Bucks 128, Nuggets 112
Money line (ML)
PASS because Milwaukee is the play but betting the Bucks or any NBA regular-season favorite at -275 is a bad long-term strategy.
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Against the spread (ATS)
Yesterday I laid out a case as to why Denver was undervalued despite an MVP-like performance from C Nikola Jokic in the first half of the season and PG Jamal Murray starting to ball.
However, the BUCKS -7 (-110) could be more undervalued than the Nuggets. According to CleaningTheGlass.com, Milwaukee is the only team behind Denver in win differential based upon net efficiency with a minus-3.3 differential.
Furthermore, this is a big number to lay, but situationally this is a terrible spot for the Nuggets. Denver has a losing ATS record as an underdog, in games with a rest disadvantage, after a win, in non-conference games and on the road vs. winning teams.
TAKE the BUCKS -7 (-110) for 1 unit.
Over/Under (O/U)
Slight lean on OVER 235.5 (-110) for a quarter-unit only because I prefer the side over the total in Nuggets-Bucks and it’s seemingly too obvious.
On the other hand, maybe not since the market is split on the total even though there is a bevy of Over-friendly trends for both teams here.
Ultimately, my read is Denver has almost no chance of stopping Milwaukee’s offense and the Nuggets’ superstars are on a roll recently.
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Also see:
- 2021 NBA Mock Draft consensus 2.0: The updated first round (Rookie Wire)
- Hoops Hype rumors: Nuggets | Bucks
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