The No. 6 Villanova Wildcats (15-3 overall, 10-2 Big East) face-off with Butler Bulldogs (8-13, 7-11) Sunday in a Big East battle at Hinkle Fieldhouse. The tip-off is set for noon ET. Below, we analyze the Villanova-Butler odds and lines, with NCAA college basketball picks and predictions.
Rankings courtesy of the Ferris Mowers Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.
Villanova at Butler: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 10:51 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Villanova -800 (bet $800 to win $100) | Butler +550 (bet $100 to win $550)
- Against the spread/ATS: Villanova -11.5 (-110) | Butler +11.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 128.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Villanova at Butler: Three things to know
- The Wildcats avenged one of their conference losses by routing St. John’s 81-58 as 11-point home favorites Tuesday to win their second straight and fourth out of five games (2-2-1 ATS).
- Butler snapped a three-game losing skid by upsetting Seton Hall 61-52 as a 7.5-point home favorite and is 2-3 overall (2-3 ATS) in its last five games. The Bulldogs are in the basement of the Big East in several team categories including points per game, rebounds per game and field-goal percentage.
- Villanova has won six of its last seven (6-1 ATS) against Butler, including an 85-66 beatdown as a 12.5-point home favorite earlier this season.
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Villanova at Butler: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Villanova 79, Butler 62
Money line (ML)
PASS because Villanova (-800) is the right side, but you’d have to be insane to pay that kind of vig for an outright victory. Just bet the spread instead of risking eight times your return.
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Against the spread (ATS)
Villanova is one of the most efficient offenses (fifth in offensive rating) and best shooting teams in the country (38th in true shooting percentage). The only reason Butler isn’t giving up more points per game is that it uses ultra-slow pace (332nd in pace of play) to hide a weak defense.
It makes sense—fewer possessions for the offense should equal fewer points—and this is all because Butler ranks 218th in defensive rating and 272nd in opponent’s true shooting percentage.
All the basketball edges Villanova has means Butler would need really poor effort and execution by the Wildcats for the Bulldogs to even cover here. TAKE VILLANOVA -11.5 (-110) for 1 unit.
Over/Under (O/U)
As ridiculous as this sounds, it would appear as bookmakers aren’t adjusting the recent results between Villanova-Butler. The Over has cashed in three straight meetings and seven of the past eight contests.
Also, my read is that the Wildcats are motivated to finish their regular season strong after recent conference upsets, so I am expecting Villanova won’t take its foot off the gas. BET OVER 128.5 (-115) for a half-unit.
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