We now have an answer to where Carson Wentz will play next year. According to Adam Schefter the Philadelphia Eagles are trading Carson Wentz to the Indianapolis Colts for a third-round pick in 2021 and a conditional pick in 2022.
What will follow in the next few days and weeks are think pieces about how his new offensive coaches can go about “fixing him,” and many will point to schemes, designs and concepts that are pulled out of playbooks as the answer.
The answer to fixing Carson Wentz cannot be found in a playbook.
It lies in his mind, in his gut, and the same goes for those now around him entrusted with the task of fixing him.
Assuming that this day was coming, I spent the tail-end of Super Bowl week not studying the Tampa Bay Buccaneers or the Kansas City Chiefs – believe me Doug Farrar and I already had done enough of that – but watching Wentz. I looked at every big play of his from his entire career, and every mistake or interception I could stomach. I tried to see if there were schematic elements that worked more than others, or route designs that he simply could not hit anymore.
The more I watched, the more I became convinced that the answer would not lie in the designs, but in his mind and his gut.
Fixing Carson Wentz requires rebuilding his confidence more than anything else.
Confidence in a quarterback can show up in a number of ways, but for my money you see it when he lets the football go. Or doesn’t, as the case may be. Does he trust in those around him, or does he not? Does he trust what he is seeing in the secondary, or does he not?
Does he throw the ball when he should, or does he not?
Back in 2017 Carson Wentz was an MVP candidate, and the Philadelphia Eagles were the talk of the NFC. Watching Wentz from that season you find a completely different quarterback than the passer we see today. Take this throw against the Denver Broncos to tight end Trey Burton:
This is a confident quarterback. Burton runs a double-move on this play, starting to the inside before breaking vertically for the end zone. Wentz sees that Burton is working against a linebacker so he likes the matchup, and when he throws it, Burton is not exactly open. But Wentz trusts the tight end to get separation, and more importantly he is confident in the notion that if he puts the football in the right spot, the play is going to be made.
Timid quarterbacks might hesitate before making this throw, or pull the football down entirely and look to another option.
Now take this example, against the Chicago Bears from 2017. This is a Sticks/Curls concept out of a 3×1 formation with the trips side of the field on Wentz’s left. The quarterback looks at the middle receiver to the trips on his curl route, baiting the underneath defender to jump that route. When the defender does, Wentz comes to the tight end on the inside curl route, and completes this for a first down:
Quarterbacks that lack confidence do not move defenders like this with their eyes. Quarterbacks that lack confidence have to see the route come open before they will pull the trigger. Again, this is a confident quarterback.
Of course, we know how this chapter of the quarterback’s story ends. With Wentz suffering a knee injury in a win over the Los Angeles Rams, and being relegated to a spectator as the Eagles make a run to a Lombardi Trophy. Many have speculated that the injury – and subsequent injuries – are the main contributing factor to his regression. We will touch on that in a minute, but I wanted to at least end this brief study of his 2017 season with one of his final throws from that year, because it drives home the image of the passer he was then:
This is an anticipation hole-shot throw made against a Cover-2 defense well before the receiver comes open. The 2020 version of Carson Wentz does not make this throw, but the 2017 version makes it without batting an eye.
A few plays later, Wentz would suffer the knee injury. Now, now we wonder where that quarterback has gone, and if he can be found again.