In a middleweight bout on Saturday’s main card, Kelvin Gastelum and Ian Heinisch meet at UFC 258 at the UFC’s APEX Facility in Las Vegas. The early prelims kick off at 6:30 p.m. ET on ESPN+, followed by the prelims on ESPN/ESPN+ at 8 p.m. The main card on pay-per-view is scheduled for 10 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the UFC 258 odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
Gastelum vs. Heinisch: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 9:58 p.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Gastelum -225 (bet $225 to win $100) | Heinisch +190 (bet $100 to win $190)
- Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over -250 | Under +200)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -200 | No +170)
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Gastelum vs. Heinisch: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Records: Gastelum 16-6 | Heinisch 14-3
Fight result (2-way line or money line)
Both of these fighters have struggled lately, with HEINISCH (+190) just 1-2 across his past three. However, he is coming off an impressive Round 1 KO/TKO of Gerald Meerschaert at UFC 250 in just 74 seconds.
Gastelum (-225) is a rather moderate favorite for a guy entering on a three-bout losing skid, including a 78-second knockout loss to Jack Hermansson last time out. His previous two losses – to Israel Adesanya in a title bout, and to Darren Till – are certainly nothing to be ashamed about. However, Heinisch is the better value here.
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Over/Under (O/U)
The Over 2.5 rounds (-250) will cost you two and a half times your potential return, so PASS.
However, HEINISCH ON POINTS (+400) might be the better play, albeit with a small-unit wager. There is plenty of risk backing the underdog, and being so specific, but it could be quite lucrative in the end if “The Hurricane” gets his arm raised after a nod from the judges. Three of the past four fights for Gastelum have gone the distance, and each of his past two decisions are losses, too.
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