Three-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year and Wisconsin native J.J. Watt is about to be a free agent. He will be granted his release from the Houston Texans, making him free to sign with any other team this offseason.
The Green Bay Packers will be a popular landing spot. There’s the obvious in-state connection, but also the need along the defensive line and the potential for Watt to be one of the final pieces of the puzzle in Green Bay’s quest for a Super Bowl.
Here’s how the Packers could get Watt, but also why they probably won’t:
– The Packers are in a tough salary cap spot currently and will likely need to shed around $30 million to get under the projected cap by the start of the new league year. Adding a deal for Watt would only complicate the matter, but it’s not impossible. The Packers have plenty of ways to shed cap space this offseason. It would take a lot of maneuvering, but if Brian Gutekunst really wants Watt, he can make it happen. The cap is real, but it can be finessed. Teams do it all the time to add top players.
– The Packers could sure use the help along the defensive line. Watt is a unique player, capable of fitting in any front or scheme. He can operate as an interior rusher or a more traditional edge rusher. Teaming him with Kenny Clark, Za’Darius Smith and Rashan Gary would create an incredibly versatile, talented and disruptive front. For evidence on the effectiveness of this strategy, please refer to the Super Bowl.
– The Texans released Watt, so he’s free to pick his next team and his next contract. There will likely be mutual interest in Watt landing in Green Bay. It would be quite the story, both for player and team. Watt grew up in Wisconsin and was a fan of the Packers throughout his childhood. The right incentives, when in the hands of both parties, can be a powerful thing when something needs to get done.
– At the very least, the Packers have to contact Watt and gauge the interest. Both sides will likely know very quickly if something is capable of getting done.
– Competition for Watt is likely going to be strong, bumping up his price significantly. He is coming off a healthy season, and he’s still a good player as both a rusher and run defender. Signing with the Packers would be a nice story, but in almost all cases, money talks. And the money is almost certainly going to be better elsewhere.
– It’s possible the Packers could construct a backloaded deal to get something done with Watt. They lack spending power in 2021, but they’re in better shape in future years. Structuring the deal with most of the money in 2022 or 2023 could ease the team’s burden in 2021 and give the player some financial security long-term.
– Don’t discount the allure of playing with Aaron Rodgers for a Packers team capable of competing for Super Bowls. Playing with a future Hall of Fame quarterback on a team ready to compete right now would be highly attractive to player like Watt, who is 31 years old and has never even sniffed the Super Bowl. In fact, he’s never even played in a conference title game. The Packers have been there twice in the last two years and four times in the last seven.
– Other landing spots will also be attractive to Watt. He could go to Pittsburgh and play with his brothers. His wife plays professional soccer in Chicago. The Ravens have cap space and always aggressive. Even the champion Buccaneers have the cap space to get a deal done. Any other contending team that thinks Watt could be the final piece or a major piece of the puzzle will be in the mix.
– The Packers must consider the investment. Watt will turn 32 next month, and he has a lengthy and relatively recent history of major injuries. He essentially missed two full seasons to injury between 2016-19 before playing in all 16 games last season.
– However, the Packers spoke glowingly about Watt before facing him back in October. Matt LaFleur was especially effusive in his praise, calling him a premier player. Maybe that was just coach speak before a big game against a star. Or maybe LaFleur really does see Watt as one of the league’s true game-wreckers. Does Gutekunst and the pro personnel side agree?
– If the Packers leap over all the cap hurdles to get Watt, other big free agents would almost certainly be gone. Players like Aaron Jones and Corey Linsley would have no shot at coming back.
– Taking into account everything, the chances of Watt ending up in Green Bay look low. It’s still possible, and fans aren’t at all crazy for dreaming about the possibility, but a lot needs to happen to make it work. Hope for the best – Watt helping Rodgers and the Packers get back to the Super Bowl would be an unbelievable story – but also understand the likelihood of Watt landing elsewhere.
[lawrence-related id=55996,55990]