As the offseason rolls around, the Indianapolis Colts are likely to be linked to roughly every quarterback that’s available on the market given their need, including New York Jets signal-caller Sam Darnold.
Though the Colts have been one of the teams mentioned most in regards to a possible trade for Carson Wentz, it seems the Darnold trade could be picking up some steam as well. The 23-year-old has struggled to make good on the No. 3 overall draft capital, mostly due to an incompetent coaching staff.
But as the Colts search for a quarterback, should they be looking to trade for Darnold? Let’s break it down:
Pros
Darnold is still young. At 23 years old, one might say his best play is still ahead of him. Given the lack of supporting cast he’s had in his career, things might be different if he finally gets some help up front. He turns 24 in June, which suggests his career might still be salvagable.
There is upside in acquiring a young quarterback like Darnold, who has flashed—at times—intriguing talent. The biggest argument for Darnold is the fact that he’s still young enough to take a shot on and potentially that the Jets butchered the start of his career by not building around him and giving the keys to the aforementioned Gase.
Cons
The cons outweigh the pros. If they didn’t, we wouldn’t be talking about Darnold as a potential trade option.
Darnold entered the league in 2018 as a rookie. Since then, there have been 29 quarterbacks to start at least half of the games in the NFL. Among those quarterbacks, Darnold ranks last in completion percentage, 22nd in passing yards, 25th in passing touchdowns and has the fifth-most interceptions. Again, one could blame the way the Jets handled the situation, but it’s not a good look for a player who was highly-touted coming out of the draft.
According to Pro Football Focus, Darnold had a 55.6 passer rating when pressured in 2020, good for 27th among qualified quarterbacks. His 72.5% adjusted completion percentage was good for 34th in the NFL as well.
Then there’s the question of whether Darnold’s game can even be revived. Has so much damage been done to the young quarterback from the Gase regime that Darnold could even make it back to, say, an average quarterback level? The fact that we question that doesn’t bode well.
Compensation & Contract
Fortunately for the Colts, the compensation shouldn’t be high. The Jets will not be getting a first-round pick for Darnold if they decide to trade him. And even though the quarterback market is inflated, it’s doubtful the Colts would part ways with a Day 2 pick either. So should a deal get done, Indy is likely giving up an early Day 3 pick. Jets fans might want more than that, but it’s hard to see a team parting ways with more than that unless said team really likes him.
As for the contract, Darnold carries a $9.79 million salary-cap hit in 2021 and a fifth-year option for roughly $25 million in 2022. Whichever team trades for Darnold likely isn’t picking up that option. So the contract wouldn’t be an issue at all if the Colts wanted to take a flier.
Verdict
Darnold’s career has gotten off to a horrid start. He hasn’t lived up to expectation due to incompetent coaching, development and a lackluster supporting cast. But he also hasn’t shown the ability to elevate the play of those around him on a consistent basis, which is a concern.
Giving up a Day 3 pick to acquire Darnold seems feasible. The Colts could roll with him as the starter in 2021, hope he shows signs of life and move on if he doesn’t. Anything more than that, and the Colts may be setting up for a failed experiment with one of the biggest question marks at the quarterback position.
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