In a middleweight bout on Saturday’s main card, Maki Pitolo and Julian Marquez meet at UFC 258 at the UFC’s APEX Facility in Las Vegas. The early prelims kick off at 6:30 p.m. ET on ESPN+, followed by the prelims on ESPN/ESPN+ at 8 p.m. The main card on pay-per-view is scheduled for 10 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the UFC 258 odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
Pitolo vs. Marquez: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 3:20 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Pitolo +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Marquez -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
- Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over -165 | Under +140)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +140 | No -165)
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Pitolo vs. Marquez: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Records: Pitolo 13-7 | Marquez 7-2
Fight result (2-way line or money line)
MARQUEZ (-175) is making his UFC debut. At 6-foot-2, he towers over Pitolo (+145) by four inches. Pitolo – a.k.a. “Coconut Bombz” – has a three-inch reach advantage, is ahead 4.87 to 3.80 in significant strikes landed per minute, and holds a slight edge of 43.63 to 40.86 in significant strikes-accuracy percentage.
While the stats are all well and good, Pitolo is just 1-3 since arriving at the UFC level, falling twice via unanimous decision to Callan Potter (October 2019) and Impa Kasanganay (Aug. 29, 2020), and he was submitted by Darren Stewart (Aug. 8, 2020). The play here is MARQUEZ (-175).
On the 7-way line, I also like MARQUEZ BY DECISION (+260) in his UFC debut. If you’re not feeling either of these fighters but simply want some action, take DECISION (+140) for the fight finish. Regardless of who has their hand raised in the end, you win if the fight goes the distance.
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Over/Under (O/U)
OVER 1.5 ROUNDS (-165) is a good play. Pitolo has gone the distance in two of his previous four fights, both losses, while Marquez is coming off a split-decision setback against Alessio Di Chirico at The Ultimate Fighter 27 finale (July 6, 2018) in his most recent showing. Marquez has been sidelined due to a torn latissimus dorsi in his right shoulder, which derailed his career and even threatened to end it.
You can expect Marquez will be a bit tentative, and looking to conserve energy as he jumps back into the octagon after such a long layoff.
To watch the early prelims and prelims, sign up for ESPN+ now.
Want some action on UFC 258? Place a bet at BetMGM now. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.
MMA Junkie:
- UFC 258 breakdown
- UFC 258 pre-event facts
- Marquez on return from 31-month layoff: ‘Y’all will remember’
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