The San Antonio Spurs (13-10) host the Golden State Warriors (12-11) Monday for an 8:30 p.m. ET tip-off at the AT&T Center. Below, we analyze the Warriors-Spurs NBA odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
Golden State is dealing with injuries to its frontcourt and that has led to inconsistent performances. The Warriors just split a two-game series with the Dallas Mavericks, losing the second game 134-132 but, covered as 2.5-point underdogs and 3-3 overall (3-3 against the spread) in their last six games.
The Spurs have won back-to-back games and 4-2 overall (3-3 against the spread) over their last six games. San Antonio earned impressive wins over the Boston Celtics on Jan. 27 and Denver Nuggets Jan. 30, but was swept in a two-game series by the Memphis Grizzlies last week.
The Warriors crushed the Spurs 121-99 at home earlier this season, however, San Antonio won the prior three meetings. In the last game, Stephen Curry scored 26 points on 70.6% effective field goal percentage, and Spurs leading scorer DeMar DeRozan was held to 15 points on 37.5% effective field goal shooting.
Warriors at Spurs: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:45 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Warriors +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Spurs -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Warriors +1.5 (-110) | Spurs -1.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 233.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Warriors at Spurs: Key injuries
Warriors
- PF Eric Paschall (knee) probable
- C Kevon Looney (ankle) out
- C James Wiseman (wrist) out
Spurs
- C LaMarcus Aldridge (hip) out
- SG Lonnie Walker (illness) out
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Warriors at Spurs: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Spurs 114, Warriors 111
Money line (ML)
PASS with a lean on Spurs (-125).
Golden State’s injury report is way more problematic than San Antonio’s. The Warriors have the third-lowest offensive rebounding rate, the fourth-lowest defensive rebounding rate and will be missing both of their bigs.
You could make a case that the loss of Aldridge hurts the Spurs’ offense, but his replacement, C Jakob Poeltl, is an above-average rim protector and rebounder.
Quietly, DeRozan is having an All-NBA season; DeRozan is averaging 21.9 points per game, and he’s 13th in assists per game and eighth in offensive win shares. But, DeRozan likes to operate in the midrange, which is where the Warriors excel defensively.
According to CleaningTheGlass.com, San Antonio shoots the second-highest percentage of mid-range shots, and Golden State is fifth in opponent’s mid-range shot percentage featuring two above-average defensive wings Kelly Oubre and Andrew Wiggins.
In particular, Wiggins has played well vs. DeRozan as their per-game numbers are pretty even, and each has a 7-7 record in their teams’ meetings.
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Against the spread (ATS)
PASS. My numbers say the Warriors should be getting 3.5 points, and I wouldn’t lay points in this spot with the Spurs.
Over/Under (O/U)
Rarely do I prefer a total over a side, but the UNDER 222.5 (-110) is the best play in Warriors-Spurs.
First of all, I’ve laid out a case for both teams’ defenses in the money line section. San Antonio should control the boards, and Poeltl can D up while Golden State has a plus-EV matchup in the wings department.
Furthermore, the Warriors putting up a combined 279 points in their two high-profile games against the Mavericks this weekend inherently gives a little value to the Under.
According to Pregame.com, the market agrees with me and since when is betting Golden State Unders something most of the market does? Typically, I’d like to fade the market, but I think they are sharp in this instance.
GIMME UNDER 233.5 (-110) for 1 unit.
Want some action on this one? Place a bet at BetMGM now. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.
Also see:
- Stats and Highlights: Steph Curry hits 11 triples on way to 57 points vs. Mavs (Warriors Wire)
- Trade rumor rankings (Hoops Hype)
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