One of the most popular football columns in the media space this week, and perhaps every week since 2018, has been a variation on this theme: How do you beat the Kansas City Chiefs? A quick Google search for “how to beat the Chiefs” returns over 53 million results in under a single second. There are stories about formulas, blueprints and more. Touchdown Wire is no different, as yesterday I tried yet again to craft a game plan for slowing down Patrick Mahomes and the rest of their talented offense.
A pillar of that plan, and a part of many such pieces, is the notion that you beat Mahomes by turning him into more of a spectator. Play light up front, dare the Chiefs to run the football, and if you see #15 turn and hand the football off on a given play, consider it a victory.
Of course, if a chucklehead like me can put that together, the bright minds in the NFL can certainly do the same. Reviewing the Chiefs’ 2020 season sees that more than a few teams dared the Chiefs to run the football through formation, alignment and personnel. The kicker? Kansas City was willing to oblige, and at times it might not have gone the way defenses hoped it would.
Here’s how the Kansas City Chiefs’ rushing attack could be an x-factor in Super Bowl LV.
We all know the NFL is a copycat league, and if something works, teams will try their darnedest to mimic what they do. Given that Bill Belichick is one of the handful of coaches who has found ways to at least slow the Chiefs down over the past few seasons, it makes sense that teams would incorporate some of what he does into their own game plans.
It has not always worked.
But the premise is this: If you play with sub packages defensively, putting five, six or even seven defensive backs on the field, you might be able to play with some bracket coverages or even a true double-team on some of the Chiefs receivers, whether Tyreek Hill, Mecole Hardman or even Travis Kelce, as Belichick has done in the past. The added benefit of having so many defensive backs in the game? Mahomes, Andy Reid and Eric Bieniemy might be willing to check to the run game against those looks.
Anytime Mahomes is handing the football off, and not dropping back to throw, is a chance to keep them from scoring on a huge play in the blink of an eye.
Studying the Chiefs’ rushing attack from 2020 uncovers numerous examples of Kansas City playing along and turning to the run game against these sub personnel groups and lighter boxes, and putting together big runs on the ground.
One such team that tried this? The Baltimore Ravens back in Week 3. Yes Mahomes still threw for 385 yards in the win, but the Chiefs also ran for 132 yards on the night. Take this 2nd-and-six play from late in the first half. The Ravens align in a 2-3-6 package with just two defensive linemen in the game. Mahomes becomes a spectator, handing the ball off to rookie running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire on a split zone design:
The rookie finds a crease behind the flow of the play, and spurts upfield for a 16-yard gain. Kansas City would finish the drive with a touchdown from Mahomes to Hardman from 49 yards out to take a 27-10 lead into the locker room.
Another team that tried this strategy is the Denver Broncos. The results? Kansas City ran for 185 yards in a 43-16 victory back in Week 7 – obviously game script played a role there – and another 134 yards in a 22-16 victory in Week 13. Looking through those two games provides yet more examples of a defense using sub packages to dare Mahomes to hand the ball off, and the quarterback complying with good results for the offense.
Take this play from Week 7:
The Broncos put a 2-4-5 defense in the game for this 1st-and-10 play, using two defensive tackles and putting two linebackers on the edges to give them a four-man surface. Mahomes again hands the ball off against this light package and box, as Edwards-Helaire follows left tackle Eric Fisher and left guard Nick Allegretti to the right edge. The result? A 27-yard gain on this play. Kansas City’s drive would stall as Mahomes’ next three passing attempts would fail to pick up a first down. Perhaps Denver chalked this one up as a win for them, and they might be right.