Aside from the team’s needs on defense, the biggest decision the Tennessee Titans will have to make this offseason is what to do with wide receiver Corey Davis, who is set to become a free agent.
The Titans rightly declined Davis’ fifth-year option during the 2020 offseason after he failed to produce what you’d expect out of a top-five pick during his first three seasons in the NFL.
Davis responded in a big way though, as he tied or beat his career-highs in receptions (65), receiving yards (984), touchdowns (five) and 100-yard games (five), serving as a key cog in the Titans’ elite offense.
The biggest roadblock for the Titans bringing Davis back is their limited funds, as the team is currently $7.3 million over the cap and can’t afford to get into a bidding war with another suitor. Not to mention, the team has a lot of work to do on the defensive side of the ball.
In an article predicting where some of the biggest free-agent wide receivers will go in free agency, ESPN’s Bill Barnwell thinks that the Green Bay Packers will ink Davis to a four-year, $52 million deal.
“The Titans probably would like to retain Davis, but if his price tag creeps up past $12 million per season, they will need to move on. I keep coming back to Green Bay, where Aaron Rodgers seems to be trying to induce the Packers into adding that last piece of the puzzle on offense. Davis worked with Matt LaFleur when the Green Bay coach was Tennessee’s offensive coordinator in 2018, so he’s comfortable in that system.”
Barnwell’s projection for Davis’ contract with the Packers would net him $13 million per season, which is a little over $3 million more annually than Spotrac’s market value estimation ($9.8 million per season).
While we’re OK with the Titans paying him around $9 million or so per year, anything near Barnwell’s projection should take Tennessee out of the running for Davis.
If Davis does get offered that much, Tennessee likely won’t be able to match, nor should they. They simply can’t afford to pay that much for a No. 2 receiver and will instead have to look to an alternative.
And, in the eyes of Barnwell, that alternative could be veteran wideout Marvin Jones, who he believes will be signed by Tennessee to a two-year deal worth $13.5 million, or $6.75 million annually.
This is where we’re really going to start seeing players get squeezed, just because there are so many options available. Jones ended up with impressive numbers in 2020, in part because there really wasn’t anyone else to throw to in Detroit. Over the second half of the season, he was targeted 74 times, which was tied for the seventh most in the league. The former Bengals wideout really turned things on in December, racking up nearly half of his receiving yards (475) and touchdowns (four) over the final five games.
I can’t see many teams seeing that five-game stretch and thinking that Jones is going to play that way over the entirety of 2021, let alone beyond. He is a solid blocker, which will help his value; I could see him as a cheaper replacement for Davis as the No. 2 wideout in Tennessee.
Jones, who has spent his career being a solid No. 2 option for teams like the Cincinnati Bengals and Detroit Lions, wouldn’t be a bad short-term solution if the Titans can’t retain Davis.
Not only can the 30-year-old move the chains, but he has also proven to be a deep threat, which is something Tennessee needs. Adding to that, Jones has been more consistent than Davis from year-to-year when healthy.
The veteran finished last season with 76 receptions for 978 yards and nine touchdowns with Kenny Golladay sidelined for most of it, and he has a 1,000-yard season under his belt (2017), something Davis does not.
However, the keywords for Jones there are “when healthy” as he had missed a combined total of 10 games between 2018 and 2019 before playing in all 16 in 2020.
Not counting his rookie season, Jones has failed to play 16 games in a season in four of his last eight campaigns, including a 2014 season that saw him miss every contest, so there is certainly some risk involved here.
Whether the Titans sign Davis, Jones, or another solid No. 2 option, general manager Jon Robinson will have more work to do with the receiving corps.
It isn’t clear if the team will retain Adam Humphries, who is a candidate to be cut after two lackluster, injury-plagued seasons in Nashville. If he does get cut, the Titans must find a replacement in the slot, and even if he returns Tennessee needs to add more depth at the position.
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