The Dallas Mavericks (7-7) travel in-state to the Alamo City for an 8:30 p.m. ET game against the San Antonio Spurs (8-7) at the AT&T Center. Below, we analyze the Mavericks-Spurs NBA odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
Dallas snapped a three-game losing skid (1-2 against the spread) by beating the brakes off the injury-depleted Indiana Pacers 124-112 as 2.5-point road favorites Wednesday. Mavericks C Kristaps Porzingis played his best game since returning from a knee injury Jan. 13: KP scored 27 points on 12-of-15 shooting and collected 13 rebounds.
The Spurs were waxed by the Warriors, 121-91, as 1-point road underdogs Jan. 20. There’s really nothing good to say about San Antonio’s performance against Golden State the other night. The Spurs were minus-14 in rebounding differential, minus-five in turnover differential, minus-12 in points in the paint and shot 12.1% from three.
The Mavericks won last year’s regular-season series 3-1 (2-2 ATS). Dallas PG Luka Doncic was sensational in the four Mavericks-Spurs games: Luka averaged 32.5 points, 9.5 rebounds and 10.5 assists per game across their four meetings last season.
Mavericks at Spurs: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:20 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Mavericks -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Spurs +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
- Against the spread/ATS: Mavericks -2.5 (-105) | Spurs +2.5 (-115)
- Over/Under: 222.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Mavericks at Spurs: Key Injuries
Mavericks
- SF Dorian Finney-Smith (COVID-19) out
- PF Maxi Kleber (COVID-19) out
- PF Dwight Powell (COVID-19) out
- SG Josh Richardson (COVID-19) out
Spurs
- SG Derrick White (toe) out
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Mavericks at Spurs: Odds, betting lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Spurs 113, Mavericks 109
Money line (ML)
Both teams are in the top-10 in defensive rating so, if you can, it’s important to see how they each perform vs. top-10 defenses.
According to CleaningTheGlass.com, the Spurs are eighth in spread differential against top-10 defenses (across five games) whereas the Mavericks are 28th in spread differential (in two games).
Furthermore, Dallas’ offensive eruption vs. the Pacers Wednesday had more to do with Indiana missing defensive anchor C Myles Turner than good Mavericks offense.
Dallas shot terribly from behind the arc but pounded the paint, out-scoring the Pacers 68-48 in the paint, mostly because of no Turner for Indiana. The Mavericks scored 109 or fewer points in their prior four games.
Sure, San Antonio got rolled by Golden State its last time out, but if Stephen Curry is hitting shots (26 points on 10-of-17 shooting) and the Warriors are moving the ball (31-17 edge in assists for the Warriors), then there isn’t a lot you can do.
I am willing to excuse the Spurs for that game because they held opponents to 104 or fewer points in four of their five games before playing the Warriors.
Finally, we have a fade the market spot with nearly 75% of the money being wagered coming on the Mavericks’ money line, according to Pregame. The best part about this particular angle is that bookmakers are moving the line as if the action were on the Spurs. What that tells me is that the House wants pro-Mavericks action.
GIMME SPURS (+110) for a quarter-unit.
Against the spread (ATS)
Maybe it’s a bit nitty but, I’ll TAKE SPURS +2.5 (-115) for 1 unit worth of insurance. Either way, San Antonio is the right side here, I just personally prefer to take points when I can.
Over/Under (O/U)
I lean Under 222.5 (-105), but as you can tell by my prediction above, my total aligns with BetMGM’s projection. If a bettor thinks the number is accurate then they cannot bet that line.
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Also see:
- Viewership for NBA national TV games up to begin 2020-21 season (Rookie Wire)
- Hoops Hype Rumors: Mavericks | Spurs
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