The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (13-5) visit the Green Bay Packers (14-3) in the NFC Championship Game Sunday for a 3:05 p.m. ET kickoff. Below, we preview the Buccaneers-Packers betting odds and lines and make our NFL picks and predictions.
Buccaneers at Packers: Betting odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 8:10 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Buccaneers +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Packers -185 (bet $185 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Buccaneers +3.5 (-115) | Packers -3.5 (-105)
- Over/Under: 51.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Buccaneers at Packers: Game notes
- QB Tom Brady led Tampa Bay to an 11-5 regular-season record in his first year with the Bucs. It’s Tampa Bay’s first playoff berth since the 2007 season.
- As the NFC’s No. 5 seed, the Bucs played and won their first two playoff games on the road to get here. They beat the Washington Football Team 31-23 as 10-point favorites Wild Card Weekend and avenged a season-sweep by the rival and NFC South champion New Orleans Saints with a 30-20 Divisional Round victory as 2.5-point underdogs.
- Green Bay returns to its second consecutive NFC Championship Game and its third in five seasons. QB Aaron Rodgers and the Packers won their final six regular-season games to finish 13-3 to claim the NFC North title and the conference’s No. 1 seed.
- After a bye, the Packers defeated the Los Angeles Rams 32-18 as 7-point home favorites in the Divisional Round. Rodgers threw for 296 yards with 2 touchdowns and ran for another score in the win.
- The Buccaneers defeated the Packers 38-10 as 3-point home underdogs in Week 6. Brady threw for 166 yards, 2 touchdowns and no interceptions, while Rodgers had his worst outing of the season, finishing with 160 passing yards, no TDs and 2 picks. Green Bay led 10-0 after the first quarter before Tampa Bay scored 28 points before the half. CB Jamel Dean returned a Rodgers interception 32 yards for a touchdown, RB Ronald Jones (113 rushing yards, 2 TDs) scored on a 2-yard run, which was set up by Rodgers’ second pick, and Brady threw 2 TDs for a 28-10 Tampa Bay halftime advantage.
- Brady threw for 4,633 yards with 40 TDs and 12 picks in the regular season with WR Mike Evans (1,006 yards, 13 TDs) his top target. Jones led the ground attack with 978 rushing yards and 7 TDs – Brady had 3 rushing scores.
- Rodgers finished with 4,299 passing yards, 48 TDs, 5 INTs and 3 rushing TDs. RB Aaron Jones totaled 1,459 yards from scrimmage and 11 TDs and WR Davante Adams was the top receiver with 1,374 yards and 18 TDs in 14 games.
- Green Bay has lost its last 3 NFC title games following its Super Bowl XLV win (2010).
Betting stats:
- ATS: Buccaneers 10-8 (9-7 regular season, 1-1 playoffs) | Packers 11-6 (10-6, 1-0)
- O/U: Buccaneers 10-8 (9-7, 1-1) | Packers 10-7 (9-7, 1-0)
Buccaneers at Packers: Key injuries
Buccaneers
- WR Antonio Brown (knee) questionable
- WR Mike Evans (knee) questionable
- WR Chris Godwin (quadriceps) questionable
- RB Ronald Jones II (quadriceps, finger) questionable
- LB Jason Pierre-Paul (knee) questionable
Packers
- PK Mason Crosby (shoulder) questionable
- WR Allen Lazard (wrist, back) questionable
- LB Za’Darius Smith (thumb) questionable
Buccaneers at Packers: Odds, betting lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Packers 27, Buccaneers 24
Money line (?)
AVOID. This could come down to who has the ball last. If you strongly believe the Packers are going to win, you can back them at -185, which is a little high for my liking. I’m PASSING and taking the points as long as I can get the hook – ½ point – with the Bucs.
Against the spread (?)
TAMPA BAY +3.5 (-115) is the STRONGEST PLAY – 1½ times your usual wager. If the line drops to 3 or lower, BACK THE PACK.
Over/Under (?)
Back the UNDER 51.5 (-115) for a HALF-UNIT. I’m backing the defenses despite the offensive numbers leaning toward the Over. The Packers averaged 38.1 points per game to rank first and 389.0 yards per game to rank fifth in the regular season. The Bucs were third in scoring at 30.8 PPG and seventh at 384.1 YPG.
Defensively, Green Bay allowed 334.0 YPG to rank ninth, and hasn’t allowed more than 18 points in four straight games. Tampa Bay yielded 327.1 YPG to rank sixth and features the NFL’s best rushing defense, allowing just 80.6 YPG.
Snow flurries are in the forecast with temperatures in the 20’s, but the wind isn’t expected to be a factor.
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Also see:
- WR Evans, LB David relish playoff run after staying course with Tampa Bay (Bucs Wire)
- 8 things to know about NFC Championship Game (Packers Wire)
| Johnny’s 2020-21 NFL record / Strongest plays | 30-26-2 / 15-11-1 |
| 2019-20 NFL record / Strongest plays | 17-10-1 / 7-4 |
| 2021 overall record (all sports) / Strongest plays | 31-15 / 16-8 |
| 2020 overall record (all sports) / Strongest plays | 178-147-4 / 87-61-1 |
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