Final predictions for Florida’s Cotton Bowl showdown with Oklahoma

This wasn’t where Florida hoped it would be. With one game left in the regular season, the Gators had one loss and knew a win in the SEC Championship would seal its spot in the College Football Playoff.

But they lost their final game to LSU and then again to Alabama in the title game, and now the best UF can hope for this season is to capture its third-straight New Year’s Six Bowl win under coach Dan Mullen.

The Oklahoma team that stands in its way won’t be easy to get past though. This is another elite offensive team, which already makes this a bad matchup for the Gators.

The Sooners missed the CFP this season for the first time in three years, but since starting the season 1-2, they’ve won seven in a row and earned their sixth-straight Big 12 title. OU is one of the hottest teams in the country, and if Florida’s going to slow it down, it’ll have to do it shorthanded.

The Gators are missing two starters in the secondary in Shawn Davis and Marco Wilson, who opted out to focus on the draft. Even with them, Florida’s passing defense isn’t very good. Without them, Oklahoma and redshirt freshman quarterback Spencer Rattler, who has 2,784 yards, 25 touchdowns and seven picks this season, should make quick work of the UF defense.

But defense isn’t Florida’s strength. Rather, it’s the passing game, which is the nation’s best. Led by Heisman finalist Kyle Trask, the unit has achieved success against all competition this year. But it will be without its top four receivers in Kadarius Toney, Trevon Grimes, Kyle Pitts and Jacob Copeland.

Without them, UF will look to guys like Justin Shorter, Xzavier Henderson, Rick Wells and Trent Whittemore to pick up the slack. Florida’s offense didn’t struggle much without Pitts earlier this season, but it’s unclear if it will be as successful without all four of them.

Still, this is an OU defense that’s vulnerable. Oklahoma has the nation’s No. 2 rushing defense, but it ranks just 77th in passing defense. The Sooner have their hands full with the Gators offense, even without many of its top playmakers. UF has Trask, and that may be the most important point.

I don’t really like this matchup for the Gators. They’ve been exposed defensively each time they play an offense of this caliber, and it feels like the same is going to happen Wednesday night. But at the same time, Florida should be able to have offensive success in this game. It will be a challenge for Trask to have to do so with an entirely new group of starting receivers, but if anyone’s up to the challenge, it’s him.

Florida escapes a high-scoring nailbiter with a win in the Cotton Bowl on Wednesday night.